Trapped Homeowners Find Painful Choices

‘Tis better to have loved and lost –  just not everything.

Homeowners once jubilant with the euphoria of owning their first house yet now facing the loss of everything through foreclosure are finding a side door through which to make a less painful exit. Short-selling – or selling a home for less than the amount still owed on the mortgage with agreement from the bank to  forgive the remainder – is a growing trend among desperate homeowners who have run out of options.

The owner of this house in Union County was facing foreclosure before opting to short-sell the property — selling for less than is owed with agreement from the bank to accept the reduced payment.

Foreclosures on homes in New Jersey reached a one-year high in just the third quarter of 2008 at 2,798, a 95 percent increase over the same quarter last year. Union County was one of the hardest hit areas, with one in every 642 homes in the county scheduled for auction, according to multiple real estate sources.

As homeowners become desperate to sell properties now valued at less than the price they  were purchased for and sometimes less than the amount owed on them, many homeowners look at short-selling as a way to walk away from a home they can no longer afford without going through foreclosure, filing for bankruptcy and/or gutting their credit rating.

For many homeowners, a short sale can reduce a nightmare to a bad dream.

But it is still a bad dream, experts point out.

Interest in short-selling is increasing, according to real estate professionals, however no statistics are available on how many homeowners have actually entered into or completed the short sale process.

“It is often hard to pinpoint a short sale unless you actually sit down and compare the original title or insurance papers and know the amount of money owed on a home,” said Derek Miller, a short sale expert with Barclay Funding Corp. in Plainfield.

That is one reason the implications of short sales reach far beyond the individual homeowner. Because the price of other homes in the surrounding neighborhood are based on “comparables,” or the comparison of prices of local homes sold in the last six months to a year, a short sale can often decrease the asking price for other homes in the area for several months.

“A short sale can do major damage to the property values in a neighborhood,” said Miller.

In addition, both the seller and the potential buyer of a short sale home need to understand that the sale itself is usually more complex than a standard sale, takes more time to complete, and should not be attempted without an attorney and a real estate agent who is an expert in short sales, according to Jonathan Steingraber, foreclosure division manager for Striker Realty in Linden.

It is not unusual for homeowners in danger of foreclosure to have multiple loans on the property, said Steingraber, explaining that the homeowner might have borrowed from one lending institution for the down payment and another for the mortgage.

Because all lenders in a short sale must agree before the deal can be completed, the length of time from contract to closing can be double or even triple.

“If a typical sale takes 30 days to close, count on at least 60 days in a short sale,” he said.

In addition, there can be tax implications if the property is not the primary residence of the seller. Another point to consider is that a bank may not agree to forgive all of the difference between the amount owed on the mortgage and the amount received in the sale.

“A bank may ask the seller to sign a promissory note for a portion of the amount still owed on the mortgage,” Steingraber said.

But faced with the prospect of losing their home anyway, many homeowners will decide that a smaller promissory note is preferable to the damage to their credit rating caused by foreclosure.

If handled properly, a short sale can indeed protect a credit rating, experts say. The final papers on a short sale will read that the loan “was paid in full as agreed,” making it easier for the seller to get other loans, if needed, and to even get back into the housing market typically in less than the seven to 11 years after a foreclosure proceeding, Steingraber said.

But short-selling is just one option a homeowner in trouble should consider, according to David Bradley of the consumer real estate department at Bank of America.

“Our first goal is to keep people in their homes,” Bradley said.

The federal bank bailout includes money for banks to assist homeowners with mortgage problems. Bradley suggests homeowners attempt to renegotiate their mortgage with their bank before considering a sale.

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Mortgage Woes Draw Scam Artists

As foreclosures become more commonplace and more homeowners worry about losing their properties, “foreclosure rescue” scams are on the rise, according to law enforcement officials.

New Jersey Attorney General Anne Milgram recently announced that lawsuits have been filed charging 37 mortgage loan providers, mortgage industry employees, lawyers and other defendants with consumer fraud and civil racketeering for a variety of predatory schemes designed to bilk worried homeowners of their money, and sometimes of their homes.

Charges have been filed in two cases of mortgage fraud in Union County, as well, according to Sergeant Vincent Cagliardi of the Union County Prosecutor’s Office.

While details of the Union County cases, including the names of the defendants, could not be released because they are still under investigation, Cagliardi explained the basic premises of the scams in order to put other area homeowners on alert.

The first case involves a “typical straw party purchase,” Cagliardi said. A person who claims to be interested in purchasing a property for an unidentified third party contacts a homeowner. The person convinces the homeowner to use his real estate agent and lawyer to “save money.”

After the title papers assigning the home to the third party are signed, the homeowner either receives a bad check or no money at all.

The second scam is more complex and has involved several dozen Union County homeowners, Cagliardi said.

A homeowner receives a packet in the mail offering to purchase his or her house for well above current market value. The packet includes a number of papers to sign along with one or more checks. The homeowner is instructed to call a phone number and provide personal information to assist the buyer in closing the sale.

When the homeowner attempts to cash the checks, he or she learns that they are not valid. In the meantime, the alleged thieves file a notice of settlement that freezes the sale of the home to any potential legitimate buyer for at least 30 days, and possibly leads to the theft of the home.

The prosecutor’s office quickly arrested the front men in this scam.

“They were coming in to the county clerk’s office and filing ten or 12 of these a day,” Cagliardi said.

It has been harder to locate the real leaders behind the scam. Cagliardi is still investigating and expects to announce arrests shortly.

There are steps homeowners can take to protect themselves from fraud, law enforcement officials say. If someone who is not a licensed real estate agent approaches you about purchasing your home, be suspicious. In addition, both the buyer and the seller should have their own attorney.

“The most important thing to remember to keep from getting scammed,” said Cagliardi, “is if someone makes you an offer that is too good to be true, it probably is.”

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Local Job Market to Fair Better than Nation

By Rod Hirsch

HELP WANTED – Dynamite opportunity! Must be physically fit; hard hat, pick axe, earplugs and explosives supplied; free rail transportation to and from work site; those with claustrophobia need not apply.

As the national and world economies continue their tailspin, the  nation’s unemployment rate is spiking upward. U.S. employers trimmed another 240,000 jobs from their payrolls in October, pushing unemployment to 6.5 percent, its highest level since March 1994.

For workers willing to travel west or south and go deep underground, mining remains the only sector expected to increase staffing levels for the upcoming quarter, according to Manpower Inc., a leading employment services firm.

In every other sector, jobs may be scarcer than gold nuggets.

Reports show that every region of the country is affected, as is every job sector. In durable and non-durable goods manufacturing; transportation/public utilities; wholesale/ retail trade; and finance/insurance/real estate and services, employers all expected decreased hiring activity during the current quarter, according to the most recent Manpower, Inc. quarterly survey of 14,000 employers in 460 cities nationwide.

Employers in the construction, education and public administration sectors indicated stable hiring conditions.

More than 1.2 million jobs have disappeared already this year, according to the U.S. Labor Department. It is expected to get worse; some analysts are predicting unemployment rates as high as 8 percent in 2009, even double-digit if the auto manufacturing industry implodes.

Union County, and the rest of New Jersey, will not be immune, experts say, but there are areas that will not be as hard hit.

“Manufacturing will have its ups and downs,” said Kenneth DeGraw, partner with WithumSmith+Brown, who represents 200 clients in Union County. “The automakers are getting whacked at the moment, so anything connected with that will be hurt.

“(But) there are a lot of chemical and petrochemical industries in Union County, and with our dependency on energy, I don’t see any of those jobs going away. I don’t see that taking too big a hit.”

Michael Affuso, vice president and director of governmental affairs for the New Jersey Bankers Association, said the state’s banks, particularly the smaller community banks, are in good shape. It is the larger banks and other financial institutions on Wall Street where he expects trouble and an ensuing domino effect that may impact New Jersey.

“You hear anecdotally of layoffs occurring on Wall Street,” Affuso said. “In New Jersey there are significant back office operations (associated with these companies), so I think it would be reasonable to say that we would not be immune from layoffs.”

Affuso also said the combination of larger financial firms, such as Bank of America buying Merrill Lynch, likely will contribute to the pressure to layoff employees, noting overlapping functions.

“As for smaller community banks in New Jersey, it’s business as usual,” he said. “They didn’t get involved in the more exotic loan products and markets. They’re actually going to be able to increase their market share as people look for more safety.”

Laying off employees is a difficult step for businesses, according to DeGraw.

“The last thing employers cut is people,” he said. “From working with my clients I can tell you that they never want to do it. They want to hang on to their people as long as possible. Nobody wants to deliver that news.”

However, some companies may be left with no other choice, DeGraw added.

“Payroll is the single largest cost,” he said. “Once you get past the manpower all that’s left is paper and pencils. You can try using both sides of the copy paper for just so long.”

Like the rest of New Jersey, Union County is dominated by service industries like Federal Express, one of the largest employers in the county with 2,500 workers at the FedEx hub at Newark Liberty International Airport.

FedEx blames record high fuel prices and a sluggish global economy for a 22 percent drop in net income in the company’s first quarter, which concluded Aug. 31, from $494 million last year to $384 million this year.

FedEx spokesman Jim McCloskey declined to address the possibility of layoffs at the Newark Hub, but emphasized the importance of the operation and its employees in the Northeast region.

“Obviously, the economy is soft,” he said. “However we have a strong and robust presence in that market. Even in this sluggish economy we are providing a service that is in demand to help our customers get goods from one point to another.  Certainly that activity will continue.”

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By John L. Picard

Don’t be nervous - It’s time we  had “the talk.” I feel our relationship has reached that point where you can handle it. I want to share the secret of business development success. Ready? “Adapt your customer marketing to the customer.”

Hit the moving target - I know this sounds obvious, as you sit there wishing you had said that. Truth is, with all the change we see today, this is more difficult than it sounds. The customer has become a moving target. They learn, listen, connect and buy through a whole new set of tools that vary by: product, customer, timing and all the variables that drive the customer at the moment.

It’s worth a shot - The answer is to build a flexible marketing program based both on the variables where the customer is now and where the customer will be tomorrow.

Like a hunter leading his shot to where the game is flying, here are some suggestions where to aim:

Start with the relationship - We all pay attention to relationships we think are already important. Use your marketing tools to build real dialogue and experience. When done right, your marketing and communications will allow your customers to tell you what they want, need and how they want to be sold.

Move from shiny to smart - They say you can tell the difference between a man and a boy by the price of the toy (ask my wife). Despite my male attitude, in the end, I buy function over form. Recently, I became the credit card company’s new best friend when I bought new office equipment. State-of-the-art got my attention but relevant answers got the credit card out of the wallet. Make sure your marketing message addresses the need you discover through your dialogue.

Become a point of focus - We all multi-task everyday. After the fact that boys hide Playboy® under the mattress (I won’t tell), it is the great secret of modern life. We watch, read, listen, eat, work, talk, and buy like a juggler spinning plates on the old Ed Sullivan Show. Your challenge is to make sure you are there, and still spinning, when the customer shifts his attention back to you. Your marketing must be able to draw the customer’s attention away from the other tasks of the day.

Talk when they want to hear - Have you ever noticed how many car commercials there are when you are looking for a car? Be ready when the customer’s radar goes on. Adapt your marketing timing and message to the moments that bring the radar up now.

Communicate through the mediums of their choice - Each customer is at the center of his own community of people, media and information sources. More than multi-taskers, we are also multi-sourcers. We choose our information sources and input from a unique mix that varies for each individual across mass media, the web, personal conversations, and the buzz at the local store. Mix and match the channels that reflect where your prospect is and where they will be listening.

Build a story - The sale is never about a single roll of the dice. Maximizing the number and alignment of all the touchpoints (connections) that form your customer relationship makes business happen. Create a flow of successive messages across all your sales tools and communications to form a single powerful story.

It’s do or die - Bottom line: Forget all the latest marketing gizmos. Choose a custom blend of marketing for each customer and stage of relationship. I’m glad we had this chance to talk. Don’t make me have to do it again.

JOHN PICARD is principal of Picard & Company, a strategic marketing firm specializing in business growth and customer retention. Functioning as a “relationship architect,™” the firm strengthens customer relationships to optimize long-term returns and profitability. Picard can be reached at 908-771-0512 or via e-mail at jpicard@picardmarketing.com or visit www.picardmarketing.com.

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To our guests and friends

In warm appreciation of our association during the past year

We extend our very Best Wishes for a Happy Holiday Season.

(800) 775-3645           (908) 241-4100

Foreclosure. The word turns the American dream of homeownership into a nightmare that threatens to unravel entire lives.

Yet it need not come to that. Increasingly homeowners unable to make mortgage payments and locked in a home worth less than they owe are turning to the new trend of short-selling.

“If a foreclosure is a car wreck where you total your car, short-selling is a fender bender,” said Jonathan Steingraber, foreclosure division manager of Striker Realty in Linden.

According to the legal dictionary Nolopedia, short-selling is, “A sale of a house in which the proceeds fall short of what the owner still owes on the mortgage. Many lenders will agree to accept the proceeds of a short sale and forgive the rest of what is owed on the mortgage when the owner cannot make the mortgage payments…(avoiding) a lengthy and costly foreclosure.”

Foreclosure is a nasty word for banks and mortgage lenders, as well, according to Randy Zimnoch, also foreclosure division manager of Striker Realty.

“Banks are in the business of lending money, not owning property,” he said.

Zimnoch notes that a foreclosure costs a bank on average $40,000 to $60,000 and brings the added responsibilities of possession of the property, including maintenance; potential vandalism; taxes, insurance and utilities; and the cost of selling the property.

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on more than 300,000 U.S. properties in August, a 12 percent increase from the previous month. One in every 416 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month, the firm reported.

“Banks want to work with people,” Zimnoch said. “They are overwhelmed and are ripe to be helped to find a solution.”

Striker Realty provides that solution.

A homeowner typically contacts Striker because they are behind in their mortgage payments, know their home is worth less than they owe or for some other reason must sell the house due to hardship. But a standard sale will not yield enough money to pay off the debt.

Owners of this Union County home owed more than $390,000 on their mortgage and were able to avoid foreclosure by short-selling the property for $256,000 with the assistance of Striker Realty in Linden.

Striker represents the homeowner throughout the entire process, including initiating contact with the bank. Steingraber and Zimnoch – who are fluent in Spanish and Polish, respectively – work directly with the bank-appointed appraiser, who sets the fair market value on which the bank will make its decision, help locate a buyer and handle all the paperwork. They also negotiate a final agreement with the bank and any secondary lienholder.

Most importantly, Striker works to ensure release of the deficiency judgment, or the unpaid balance of the mortgage, so the homeowner can walk away and restart his or her life.

The process can be complete in just three-to-nine months and allows someone to return their credit to good standing in 12-18 months. It also is an option with which most real estate agents are not familiar, Steingraber added.

“We are here to educate people,” he said. “We want them to know what their options and solutions are. That’s the first step toward starting over.”

Jonathan Steingraber can be reached at 908.868.2178 and Jon@AgentsofNJ.com. Randy Zimnoch can be reached at 908.347.2291 and Randy@AgentsofNJ.com. Visit Striker Realty at www.AgentsofNJ.com.

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Heroic Selling Through Time Pacing Change: The Willy Loman Albatross

By Andy Gole

The salesperson rises to heroic stature in:

    1) Challenging prevailing norms to acquire new business;

    2) Demonstrating emotional resiliency to bounce back from inevitable rejection;

    3) Taking ownership for results – acting entrepreneurially; and

    4) Time Pacing Change.

Time pacing change – underutilized in our business culture – was popularized by 3M, who set this corporate objective: 30 percent of sales must come from products less than four years old.

Another example from Gillette: 40 percent of sales every five years must come from entirely new products. (Source: Competing at the Edge.)

Instead of waiting and then reacting to market changes, time pacing creates the future. It forces change on an organization and its markets, staying ahead of declining product/service life cycles.

Do you time pace change?

A major opportunity for time pacing change requiring limited investment is enrolling the sales team to both create opportunity and condense the selling cycle.

Unfortunately, instead of time pacing change many organizations accept self-limiting assumptions that extend the selling cycle. Negative consequences may include the competition closing the sale or the client losing passion for the project and taking no action.

There is a major self-limiting assumption embraced by too many organizations: “There’s nothing I can do to make the client buy. I gave them all the information they need. Now it’s up to them.” If you believe it will take one-to-two years to close a client, this often creates adverse self-fulfilling prophecies.

This is the antithesis of time pacing change. The heroic salesperson time paces change. She has a grand vision of the possible, engages the prospect in serious conversation regarding this vision and catalyzes a change process. She identifies and meets the client’s needs.

For the complex sale the heroic salesperson does the seemingly impossible: she helps the client develop an internal consensus for change. Staying in touch with the client when interest seems to wane, she offers new vital reasons to keep the “candle in the wind” burning. Knowing there are changing client priorities, she ensures her project becomes the top priority.

This is challenging work. It requires imagination, persistence, problem solving, taking ownership and deep emotional reserves.

It is easier to say, “There’s nothing I can do…”

For many companies, time pacing change was never more needed.

Condensing the selling cycle could be the most cost effective way to time pace the future.

Unfortunately, heroic salespeople are often discouraged; they bear an unnecessary albatross in our business culture – the stigma of Willy Loman, who exemplifies “There’s nothing I can do…” He is a fraud.

In reality, the heroic salesperson is critical to time pacing change, to economic progress, to advancing our civilization. It is lamentable that playwright Arthur Miller selected the salesperson – an essential, heroic “spark plug”– to critique our culture.

Since most people – including many business owners – do not understand the complex, heroic selling process, Willy Loman has become a negative symbol for salespeople.

You may know a business owner who says, “The real work gets done in the office or the factory. Salespeople are just high-paid prima donnas who don’t do anything.”

Consider the Bunte Candy Story about a straight-commission salesperson on his “last legs.” This salesperson sold decorative packaging. The biggest prospect in the country was Bunte Candy, which the salesperson needed to close. However, Bunte had been sourcing from another company for five years and would not talk to this salesperson. He was running out of money and approaching the breaking point. It looked hopeless.

He could have said, “There’s nothing I can do..”

But failure wasn’t an option. Realizing that Bunte Candy sold its product to retailers, that the retailers were the real customer, he went around Bunte Candy, enrolled a major retailer and closed the Bunte business.

Until the unfair stigma of “Willy Loman” is toppled, the potential for heroic selling and time pacing change will be undermined. We need to celebrate the heroic salesperson.

© Bombadil LLC 2008

Andy Gole has taught selling skills for 13 years. He started three businesses and has made approximately 4,000 sales calls, selling both B2B and B2C. He invented a selling process, Urgency Based SellingTM, with which he can typically help companies double their closing or conversion ratio. Learn more about Andy’s method at www. bombadilllc.com or by calling him at 201.415.3447.

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Fazio, Mannuzza, Roche, Tankel, LaPilusa LLC

They know taxes

“If only I’d known.”

Those words will not placate the Ghost of Taxes Past when he comes calling soon after the holiday season of 2008 gives way to the tax season of 2009.

In the IRS version of the Dickens classic, this year’s flashbacks might include the business owner who should have purchased needed equipment and taken an immediate expense deduction – versus the standard five-year depreciation – thereby offsetting taxable earnings for the year. The Section 179 Deduction will haunt him this tax season.

There might be the family leader lamenting her failure to take advantage of the reinstatement of the expired tax law allowing IRA donations of up to $100,000, or the 2008 increase in allowable contributions to her 401(k) plan. The lost opportunities will chill her bones.

And “If only I’d known” will echo throughout the land.

Unless these are clients of the accounting and consulting firm Fazio, Mannuzza, Roche, Tankel, LaPilusa LLC (FMRTL). If so, the Ghost of Taxes Past will skip them this year.

“It’s all about taking a proactive approach,” according to Rick Gatti, tax manager at FMRTL. “A lot of clients come to you after the year-end, when it’s too late to do anything for the prior year. We take a hands-on approach to make sure our clients have all their options available. We keep a close watch on our clients’ financial and tax positions during the year to identify potential financial and tax planning opportunities.

This enables us to provide them with information they need to make informed and timely financial and tax decisions.”

FMRTL provides their clients with a full menu of tax services, including: individual and corporate tax planning; estate planning; tax compliance issues; separation and divorce; mergers and acquisitions; and business succession planning.

“By maintaining a close client relationship and providing up-to-date expertise, we are able to maximize the effectiveness of our services,” Gatti said. “It is important to look beyond the numbers. Clients’ need to know what planning strategies are available and how these strategies will enable them to achieve optimum results. We hold our clients’ hands throughout the entire process.”

FMRTL visits business clients monthly, quarterly or semi-annually, depending on their needs. While they review past and present finances, the firm goes further – considering additional pieces of the tax-planning puzzle, such as contracts, operating agreements, pensions and more.

“We provide a myriad of services, with an emphasis on both short- and long-term planning,” Gatti said. “For example, we provide our clients with estate planning tools which enable them to preserve their hard-earned assets so they can effectively pass those assets on to their heirs.”

The variety of expertise at FMRTL helps the firm do that, according to Gatti. While clients work with a point-person, they also enjoy a coordinated approach that includes the benefits of all the firm’s disciplines.

“We make sure we have the right team of professionals on an engagement to ensure the client is getting the maximum value and the full benefit of our services,” Gatti said.

“Our coordinated approach enables us cover every aspect of the client’s needs. “The tax law is constantly changing. This year alone we had two major tax bills enacted with major provisions affecting most, if not all, taxpayers. Therefore, it is imperative for us to have a thorough understanding of how these new provisions will affect our clients. Our goal is to provide our clients with the guidance they need to make well informed decisions and take full advantage of the best tax planning opportunities out there.”

Is it too late to head off the Ghost of Taxes Past for 2008?

“The month of November and early December is really the best time to do year-end tax planning,” Gatti said. “It provides taxpayers with time to evaluate where they are from both a financial and tax perspective and to take action. It’s not too late if you act now.”

Fazio, Mannuzza, Roche, Tankel, LaPilusa LLC can be reached at (973) 376-4300 or www.fmrtl.com.

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Jersey Boys Talk Turkey About Election

By Christopher Reardon

The single greatest influence on the 2008 presidential and congressional elections was the economy, not a surprising conclusion by of a panel of political experts who convened the morning after election day to discuss the outcome of the races and the impact on the national and New Jersey economies.

The panel comprised veteran political insider and cable television host Jim McQueeny; and political lobbyists Dale Florio, a Republican, and Bill Pascrell III, a Democrat.

Pascrell was the gracious winner as he tried to mask his pleasure with the outcome of the elections, in which the Democratic Party captured the White House and a number of seats in both houses of Congress.

Florio attempted to downplay the severity of the damage in light of widespread predictions that results would be worse.

McQueeny played the perfect referee at the annual event, jointly sponsored by the Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce and the Union County Employer Legislative Committee.

The impact of the presidential election on a key sector of the New Jersey economy was another point on which Florio and Pascrell agreed. Both felt the state’s business community, and particularly its smaller businesses, will do well under a Barack Obama presidency. “I think New Jersey is going to fair very well under an Obama administration,” Pascrell said.

“Obama has said he believes one of his most important jobs is to create jobs. He understands the plight of the small business.”

Florio concurred, but added he felt the same would have been true under a John McCain administration.

“Every administration recognizes you need small businesses to make the economy go,” he said. “I don’t think Obama will do anything to hurt them.”

The economy was not as friendly to McCain and the Republicans, according to McQueeny.

“Despite ABD – anybody but Bush – despite the war, McCain and Obama were very close,” soon after the Republican National Convention, he pointed out. Then came the first 700-point drop in the Dow Jones, which most hurt the McCain-Palin campaign.

“The Dow was the third person on that ticket,” he said.

Despite the election outcome, Florio maintained the results were not as dire for Republicans as had seemed possible only a few days prior to the election.

“When you look at all the things the Republicans had going against them, it’s remarkable to me the popular vote was as close as it was,” Florio said. “The president-elect is smart enough to recognize he can’t go into the White House and move people. At the end of the day, people like coalition government rather than people at the top trying to dictate across the board.”

Pascrell agreed.

“The best thing that happened is that the Democrats did not get a 60-seat majority (in the Senate),” he said. “We have to get beyond the chest slapping language.”

However, the experts differed on issues as often as they agreed. Pascrell said he believes Obama changed the landscape of American politics through a new formula of presidential campaigning, citing control of message, overwhelming fundraising and resisting the temptation to get personal – a temptation to which McCain fell prey.

Florio disagreed.

“It’s been an amazing transformation, but I don’t think the Democrats can say there’s been a true realignment,” he said.

The panelists disagreed on taxes, as well, with Pascrell foreseeing no significant tax increases and Florio believing they will be inevitable.

“I don’t believe Obama will introduce a bill to raise taxes right off the bat,” Pascrell said. “Obama made the economy the centerpiece,” Florio countered. “If he doesn’t pursue tax cuts for somebody – which means tax increases for others, maybe business – he’ll lose credibility from the get go.”

On the issue of McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate, Florio indicated the Alaska governor was a double-edged sword.

“He needed someone like her to solidify the base, but she brought nothing else,” he said.

Pascrell conceded that Obama might have as tough a time controlling congressional leaders of his own party as he will with those across the aisle.

“Obama has the ability, because of his relationships, to have greater sway,” he said. “(But) people in legislature don’t like to be dictated to. The honeymoon could be short.”

In the end, all these topics will impact the greater issue of the economy, McQueeny pointed out, with politics, government and economics all becoming more intertwined.

“The lines are blurred between what is government, what is regulation and what is private commerce,” he said.

The 1992 presidential election – also held during a recession – brought American voters the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.” More so than ever, that seems to be the case.

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Inside Views

The Sky is NOT Falling

Everywhere I turn I hear negativity about the U.S. economy. Whether I am talking to a neighbor, a chamber member or the guy pumping gas, it is the same – we are headed for the worst time ever. The despair is tangible.

As for me, I’m actually somewhat optimistic. While we are certainly facing a rough holiday season, I think the downturn that we are now in will actually be somewhat mild. I don’t think we are getting ready to have another Great Depression. I don’t think the world as we know it is going to collapse.

There are several reasons for my optimism. First and foremost, our ability to manage the economy is much better now than it was in the early 1930s. Then, neither the government nor the financial sector had any idea what to do so they did nothing. Banks were allowed to fail and people lost their savings; businesses were forced to close and people lost their jobs.

Doing nothing, letting the economy take its course, is the absolute worst thing to do.

That’s because someone else’s problem suddenly becomes yours. On a small scale an example of this is your neighbor not being able to make his mortgage payment. When the bank forecloses on his house, the value of yours goes down in sympathy.

This strategy has been advocated by many this time around, as well. “Why should the tax payers bail out the greedy Wall Street bankers” has been the refrain.

Fortunately, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have not sat on their hands. They have done things. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been pumped into the markets to stave off collapse. Maybe these actions have not worked perfectly, but they have helped calm the situation. When people are calm, markets tend to rebound.

My second reason for optimism is the end of the presidential campaign. The last two years of unrelenting campaign have certainly had a negative effect on the economy. How so? Well, for the past two years we have heard non-stop from both sides how bad the economy is.

“The past eight years of failed policies...”

The best way to get people to vote is to scare them. George Bush did this with the terrorist threat in 2004. Barack Obama did it with the economy. John McCain couldn’t quite figure out where he wanted to be until the very end, and then he became an economic fear-monger, as well.

If you hear over and over that things are bad, whether they are or not, you will adjust your expenditures and expectations accordingly. Those adjustments, when aggregated, will become the reality.

Now that we’re done with the campaign, it is in the best interest of President-elect Obama and his Capitol Hill colleagues to change our frame of mind, to give us a more positive picture of the future. We are already seeing this. The tone of the message has changed dramatically in the last couple weeks.

However, changing people’s collective minds is like turning around an aircraft carrier. It doesn’t happen fast. If you look back at the 1992 election, the Clinton campaign, which used exactly the same message, probably prolonged the economic malaise an additional year by convincing people during the campaign that things were worse than they really were. Of course, it’s what won them the election, so all in all they didn’t feel too bad about it.

The final reason for my optimism is that John McCain was right; the fundamentals of the economy are good. The fundamentals of an economy are the people, its productive base (i.e. manufacturing capacity, farmland, etc.), its natural resources and its transportation network.

We did not suddenly wake up one day last summer and become dumber. Our roads have not disappeared. And contrary to popular belief, we are still the world’s largest manufacturer, and our capacity is still growing.

So, you take these three things together – aggressive intervention, a positive message and sound fundamentals – and you see there is reason to be optimistic.

James Coyle

President

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Where the Chamber Stands...

Now It's His Turn

Governance.

When the campaign rhetoric ends and the attack ads silence…when the polls become moot and pundits mute…when the votes are cast and tallied…it all comes down to governance.

Barack Obama has been elected the 44th president of the United States. Frank Lautenberg is returning to the Senate for his sixth term while Leonard Lance is packing for the House of Representatives for his first.

Whether as a rebuke of eight years of Republican dominance in Washington or a kneejerk punishment of the party in the White House during an economic crisis, voters across the nation opted to give someone else a try at running the nation. In addition to the presidency, Democrats picked up at least eight seats in the Senate and 20 in the House.

Yet the results could have been worse for the Republican Party. While Obama defeated John McCain in nearly every voter category, more than 46 percent of Americans casting their ballots did so for the Senator from Arizona.

In the end, no one walked away with a mandate from America to implement sweeping changes at will. The only thing Americans seemed to agree upon on November 5 was that they were glad it was over and that they want the folks in Washington to work together to make things better.

So now it is time to move forward…with the governance of the nation.

Obama took a somber approach in accepting victory. There was no dancing on the stage and saxophone playing as with the Clinton victory in 1992. We did not hear the belligerence of Newt Gingrich tossing the gauntlet and declaring the Republican Revolution in 1994, followed by Tom Delay’s announcement shortly thereafter that “It’s time for all-out war.” There was no “bring ‘em on” bravado in Obama’s speech.

In addressing the nation election night, Obama used words such as humility and affection and acknowledged that 57 million Americans did not vote for him. He quoted Abraham Lincoln about mending strained relations. He invoked memories of Jack Kennedy when speaking of a responsibility to look after one another as well as ourselves and he sounded not unlike Martin Luther King in saying, simply, “Yes we can.”

Obama even echoed Ronald Reagan as he asked Americans to summon a new spirit of patriotism and reminded them how great a nation is the United States.

He told us, “This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth that, out of many, we are one.”

So now it is time to do just that. It is time for Obama – and Lautenberg and Lance,

Democrat and Republican and Independent – to govern. To put aside partisan politics and take the nation in the right direction, regardless of the impact on their party or political careers.

There will be roadblocks. If he holds true to his promise of being the president of those who voted nay to him as well as those who voted yea, Obama may find as many battles with Capital Hill Democrats as he will with Republicans.

Maybe that’s fine. Maybe that’s how we will know it is not the same old circus with a new cast of clowns.

Because this is no laughing matter.

Government reports for October show that the U.S. economy lost another 240,000 jobs last month, bringing the year’s total job loss to 1.2 million. Unemployment rose to 6.5 percent. Wall Street and the international financial markets remain in chaos, General Motors reported a $3.0 billion loss for the third quarter and claims to be running out of money, and the real estate market remains an albatross around the neck of the nation’s economy.

As basketball player Michael Ray Richardson once said about his dismal Knicks team, “The ship be sinking.”

Ironically, when asked how far the ship could sink, Richardson answered, “The sky’s the limit.”

It will take sound governance to right the good ship America, with all hands on board pulling in the same direction. It will take insightful leadership, but perhaps more so it will take non-partisan cooperation.

As Dwight Eisenhower said, “You do not lead by hitting people over the head.”

On January 20 the chief justice of the United States will swear in a new president. Let us hope what follows is the blessing of a new period of cooperation and progress and not the curse of a return to partisan politics.

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The 2008 election was historic on many levels. Barack Obama was elected as the first African American ever to the presidency of the United States. And for the first time in over a decade, the Democratic Party will control both the legislative and executive branches of our federal government as the majority party in both the House and Senate – with President-elect Obama in the White House.

With single-party control in Washington, we can certainly expect that there will be many changes on the horizon for our nation, for taxpayers and especially for small business owners all across the country.

Small businessmen and women right here in Union County are no doubt asking themselves, what will President-elect Obama’s presidency mean to me, to my family and to my business?

How will the President-elect’s call for change impact our company, our employees and our ability to continue to grow competitively? Will we pay more in taxes? Will we be better off?

While there are no specific legislative proposals before the Congress right now, the President-elect made many promises on the campaign trail that could impact small businesses across our country. Specifically, President-elect Obama proposed the following:

    • Employment – Called for a plan that would give a $3,000 tax credit to businesses for every new job they created, and proposed tying the minimum wage to inflation.

   • Taxes – Called for increasing taxes on all Americans who make more than $250,000 a year; this would include many of America’s small business owners who make more than $250,000 a year.

   • Health Care – Called for a health care plan that would punish employers with a fine if they failed to purchase health insurance for all of their employees.

   • Unionization – Supported the card check proposal that would make it easier for employees to unionize.

   • Immigration – Proposed requiring employers, like small businessmen and women, to serve as the verifier of their employees’ citizenship status.

These are all very big and important issues that the new president has pledged to address. It is my hope that when the new Congress and President-elect are sworn into office in January, elected officials of both parties – regardless of promises made on the campaign trail –will work together cooperatively on policies that reward small businesses as the job creators of our communities.

That would include working together to help get our economy on track with an economic plan that would lower taxes for all Americans – including our small businessmen and women who will no doubt play a key role in helping strengthen our economy.

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Downturn or recession? Regardless of which descriptor one chooses, one thing is certain: the current state of the economy will lead to major changes in both the levels and types of consumer spending in the United States. And such changes will have a fundamental effect – especially since consumer spending in the United States is now a whopping 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Because of the sharp decline in housing prices, consumers’ wealth levels have fallen drastically. Combined with the tightening of consumer credit and unemployment, this means overall consumer spending will fall sharply. This decline will be particularly severe in the consumer durable goods market as consumers postpone or even forgo purchases of expensive durables.

In the supermarket, consumers are likely to switch from national brands to cheaper store brands. Consequently, major national brands could lose market share. And these losses could be permanent as consumers discover that many store brands offer high quality at prices that are lower than those charged by national brands.

Firms are likely to rely more heavily on coupons to stimulate sales; in addition, consumers are likely to spend more time searching for coupons. The net result is that prices are likely to fall. In addition, consumers may expect coupons to be part of “normal” pricing. This will make it harder for firms to increase prices later when the economy rebounds.

How will consumer spending across product categories change? Historically, certain industries have been “recession proof.” For example, the alcoholic beverage industry has been stable even when the economy is in a downturn. The entertainment industry has also been immune to business cycles. In the Great Depression, for example, the movie industry did well, even though unemployment was rampant. These patterns are likely to continue as in the past.

Given the rapid proliferation of new industries in the last decade or so, interesting new patterns of consumer behavior are likely to emerge. For example, in a good economy, the vacation and videogame industries do not compete with each other. This is unlikely to be true given current economic conditions. Consumers may have no option but to forgo vacations. To compensate for this loss, consumers may decide to reward themselves with a small, affordable gain such as the purchase of a videogame.

The patterns of competition within an industry are also likely to change dramatically.

Consider the chocolate industry. Since many consumers may be unable to afford the expensive items that they would purchase in good times, they may reward themselves with the purchase of a premium-brand chocolate. Thus, paradoxically, an expensive premium brand may gain even if the product category as a whole does not.

An interesting question is whether or not consumers will engage in more “one-stop shopping” and how this effect will vary across industries. Consider the mass merchandise market. Because of the high prices of gasoline in the recent past, more consumers are finding it cost-efficient to purchase groceries and other items from the same store. Consequently, mass merchandisers such as Wal-Mart have been able to capitalize on this shift in consumer behavior.

However, is this shift a short-run or long-run phenomenon? Also, will this one-stop shopping strategy work in other industries, especially those that sell high-priced durables? The answer is less clear.

On one hand, in tough economic times consumers are more likely to search for the best price for a product. (The Internet makes this easy.) On the other hand, consumers are likely to be more bargain-conscious. Thus, a firm that sells bundles of durables at attractive prices may succeed by using the one-stop shopping model.

In summary, the current economic conditions are likely to lead to major changes in both the levels and types of consumer spending. Traditional definitions of industries  are likely to break down. In addition, various forms of “irrational” behavior may become more prevalent as consumers adjust to difficult economic circumstances.

Sharan Jagpal is professor of marketing at Rutgers Business School and president of Strategic Management & Management Consultants. His most recent multidisciplinary book is “Fusion for Profit: How Marketing and Finance Can Work Together to Create Value” (Oxford University Press 2008).

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Trinitas Hospital has officially changed its name to Trinitas Regional Medical Center to better reflect its growth and expanded capabilities, the hospital announced recently. The new identity recognizes the status of Trinitas as a regional healthcare provider and reflects the broad range of services available at the facility, according to Gary Horan, Trinitas president and chief executive officer.

In 2007 Trinitas admitted more than 17,000 patients, treated more than 60,000 emergencies and provided more than 300,000 outpatient treatments. In addition to its 531 beds in Elizabeth, Trinitas has a healthcare presence throughout the state with nearly 100 locations. With a staff of more than 2,400 employees and a medical staff of close to 500 physicians, Trinitas Regional Medical Center is one of the largest employers in central New Jersey.

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Infineum USA L.P. recently partnered with the United Way of Greater Union County to build and donate a playhouse to the Rahway Daycare Center as part of the company’s 10th annual United Way fundraising campaign. Infineum employees designed, built and decorated the playhouse on site during their lunch breaks and after work.

Children from the Rahway Daycare Center admire the hand-painted, jungle-themed mural and test out the chalk board of the playhouse built by Infineum employees at a special celebration held at the Bayway Chemical Plant.

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The law firm of Lindabury, McCormick, Estabrook & Cooper P.C., recently participated in the 13th Annual Lee National Denim Day, the largest single-day fundraiser for the fight against breast cancer, raising more than $300. Employees were encouraged to wear denim in exchange for a $5 donation to the Women’s Cancer Programs of the Entertainment Industry Foundation.

Pictured left-to-right are: Vernon Starks, Karina Mercado, Diane Stevens, Robert Anderson, Scott Clarke, Jennifer Osborne and Edward Frisch.

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Capital One Bank recently announced that its middle-market/ corporate banking groups for New York and New Jersey will be consolidated under the leadership of Douglas Kennedy, who has headed this function for New Jersey since June 2004.

Kennedy is responsible for the bank’s middle-market business in New York and New Jersey. He joined the banking business of Capital One in 2007 with the acquisition of North Fork Bank. Kennedy earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in business from Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, CT.

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Schering-Plough Corporation employees (left-to-right) Priscilla Gregory, Sherry Winckler and Renanda Woodford, assembling meals for Mobile Meals of Westfield, were among more than 1,000 employees from company sites across the United States who volunteered for local charities as part of Schering-Plough’s annual Community Projects Day.

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The Irish Business Association recently welcomed Cormac McDonnell of IDA Ireland (Industrial Development Agency), who spoke about the role played by the multinational sector in contributing to Ireland’s transformation from being one of the poorest economies in Europe to now being the second richest, and the steps Ireland is IBA President Patrick Sheridan (left) and Program Director Rob Connolly (right) welcome Cormac McDonnell and Niamh Casey of IDA Ireland to the group’s October meeting. taking to maintain that position in spite of greatly increased global competition for multinational investment. McDonnell also discussed the impact the current crisis in the world’s financial markets is having on Ireland and its economy.

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There is an Art of Negotiation?

By Gary Roelke

Successful dealmakers have an aura – a mystique that comes from having mastered the art of negotiation. It is their stock in trade, their “black box.” It is a major source of the real value they add to clients’ transactions.

What exactly is negotiation? Is it theater? Is it difficult to learn? Does gamesmanship play a role? How about intimidation?

Bookstores are filled with answers to these questions, and good counsel can come from unlikely places. For example, consider this advice from Getting to Yes by Fisher and Ury:

     • About preparation: “…when you do anything, unless you understand its actual circumstances, its nature and relation to other things, you will not know (what governs) it, or how to do it, or be able to do it well…”

     • About perception: “…whether you are making a deal or settling a dispute, differences are defined by the difference between your thinking and theirs…put yourself in their shoes…discuss each other’s perceptions…”

Or this from Deal Maker by Robert Kuhn:

     • About people skills: “…don’t ignore the needs and wants of the other side. The best dealmakers have a keenly developed sense of ‘people assessment.’ They just seem to know where that elusive bottom line falls…”

We learn about negotiations from books, seminars, classrooms and on the playground. We learn about it from our parents, our siblings, most assuredly from our children and even from our grandchildren. It is the accumulated wisdom that comes from experience (which actually is the knowledge we glean from the pain of earlier mistakes).

That is why you want a skilled professional deal negotiator on your side of the table. The stakes are very high at this stage of the dealing process, so get the best business negotiator you can find.

Any good negotiator will tell you that to have a successful outcome you should approach any big negotiating session this way:

     1. Prepare.

     2. Prepare some more.

     3. Develop a strategy, and stick to it.

     4. Have the client clearly delineate their bottom line on all key issues.

     5. Host the meeting (there is such a thing as “home court advantage”).

     6. Keep the client out of the room.

     7. Have the client designate one person only to negotiate the business transaction, and ask the client to request that the other side do the same. There should only be two voices heard in the room.

     8. Support that person at the table with an M&A lawyer, whose role it will be to: consult with the deal negotiator; identify and solve transactional risks; and document and close the transaction.

     9. Start the agenda with the easy points, and be the first to concede a few things to the other side (gamesmanship).

    10. Designate one person from each side to take notes. When consensus is achieved on any point, write it down on a separate pad, then read it aloud, handle any questions, comments or exceptions on the spot, and move on. That pad becomes the “negotiating log book” and documents all of the progress made.

    11. Once momentum is established, sustain it – don’t rush, but don’t let things stall, either.

    12. There is nothing weak about excusing yourself for a caucus – it is professional and appropriate to gain consensus as you continue to make progress; it also is the appropriate way to bring issues to the client, who is your decision-maker.

    13. Be sure to LISTEN carefully to what the other side says, ask questions, try to discern the underlying motivations and parameters. Whatever you do, don’t react or respond until you feel you are in command of the issue and the facts.

    14. If the negotiating group cannot resolve all open points, then it is imperative that the open items be few, well articulated, and taken to the principals to resolve.

    15. Set a timetable for reconvening (either in person, or via conference call) to resolve the open items.

    16. The “negotiating log book” should be initialed by the two negotiators, copies should be made for everyone on the deal teams, and the lawyers will use that as the core of the business agreement that they will document.

 

© Gary Roelke, Corporate Finance Associates

Gary Roelke, senior partner at Corporate Finance Asociates, can be reached at 888.45.CFANY, groelke@cfaw.com or www.cfaw.com/ny-metro.

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