Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce
Past President’s Messages - 2009

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President’s Message – January 2009

The Chickens Have Come Home to Roost

Almost all of us have some kind of insurance or another. It can be car insurance or health insurance. Homeowners, workman’s comp and life insurance are common. There are a myriad of types of insurance.

Now if you pay your premium you expect to get coverage when you file a claim. And if you find that the administrators of the insurance have used your claim money to pay something else, like their gambling debts, you’ll be pretty mad. In fact, there are laws against misappropriating funds that have been put into the care of a trustee, and usually people who do this are liable to go to jail.

Except for the jail part, this is exactly what has happened with New Jersey’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund. This fund was set up to provide income for people when they lose their job. It is not charity, it is insurance, and employers and employees both make contributions

Now that the economy is turning south and unemployment is skyrocketing, the need for the Unemployment Trust Fund has never been greater. Unfortunately its resources have never been more meager. It isn’t that we haven’t been paying our premiums; rather it is the governor and the Legislature who have been diverting our money for their own ends.

Over the last few years, more than $4 billion has been diverted from the Unemployment Trust Fund. This has been over the vocal objections of the Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce and every other business group in the state.

Businesses and their employees pay about $2 billion into the fund each year. In 2004, the fund was carrying a balance of $3 billion, before it was raided. A couple of months ago, the fund balance had fallen to $161 million. Last month, claims were $169 million, up almost 25 percent from November 2007.

Right now, the Unemployment Trust Fund is barely self-sustaining. With claims expected to climb each month well into 2009, the only thing that will save it is a big increase in unemployment taxes. Nearly $400 million, or a 20 percent increase in the total collections, will be necessary.

But, as the labor force contracts, because businesses close their doors or cut their workforce, the increased burden will fall on fewer people. So, whether we like it or not, we are looking at a major tax increase, all because the government diverted the surplus.

The money was taken from the fund to pay for the state’s charity care program. While stealing from Peter (the unemployed) to pay Paul (the uninsured) may have seemed like a good idea, the fact is that being unemployed and uninsured tend to go hand in hand: the more people who lose their jobs, the more people who lose their insurance.

For years the Gateway Chamber has argued that the state’s charity care program needs its own funding source. Charity Care is an important government policy. No one should be denied care because they don’t have insurance.

However, if we as a state make this decision, we should also be cognizant that someone has to bear the cost, and that should not be the people who have just lost their jobs. The Legislature in its usual fashion has done what is expedient, not what is right.

Unfortunately government is not held to the same standard as business. Those in government make laws, but then do not apply them to themselves. If they did, a whole bunch of blackguards would be looking at jail time.

 

James Coyle

President

 

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President’s Message – February 2009

 Money on the Table

As with so many others, I have been receiving my end-of-year financial statements and looking at them with dismay over years of savings that have diminished in such a short period of time. It is a depressing perusal. Fortunately, I have quite a few years until retirement, and with luck their value will recover before then.

With one group of investments, however, I am feeling a great deal of distress. For years my wife and I have saved for our sons’ college education. We were smart; we put these savings in tax-exempt 529 plans so they would attain their maximum value.

In looking through these statements, I realize that more than a year’s worth of tuition savings has simply disappeared. And there are only two years left until I have to start paying tuition.

Unfortunately, my situation is not unique. I know there are many other families facing the same problem or, perhaps worse, have little savings set aside to help their kids get through college to begin with.

What is very surprising to me is that more families do little about it, even though there is a great deal of money out there in the form of scholarships that can help ease the burden of paying tuition.

For years the Gateway Chamber has run a small scholarship program. It is geared toward graduating high school students in Union County who have an interest in pursuing technical or vocational training. It is not directed at the straight-A student going to an Ivy League college, but rather to the student who may not be able to afford the cost of going to a four year school or who may not have the grades to get in.

The scholarship is not a big one – usually the amount awarded is $1,000 – but it often can make a big difference in whether or not school is an option.

What is surprising is that some years it is very difficult to find enough applications for us to give away the money. Often, the bulk of the applicants will come from one area high school with only a couple from other schools. Several of our local chambers that also award scholarships have faced a similar paucity of applicants.

Not understanding why anyone would not devote a couple hours of time to get a $1,000 payoff, I asked a number of high school guidance counselors why so few kids bother to apply for scholarships. Their responses show a real frustration at how far down financial aid really is on most people’s lists.

Quite frankly, most counselors believe that the main reason families don’t apply for scholarships is because they don’t think they’ll get them. Either the parents make too much money or the kids’ grades are not good enough for them to have any real chance at getting anything. These families don’t understand that there are loads of scholarships that are not need- or performance-based.

The second big reason is that many scholarships aren’t for a whole lot of money. This is certainly true, but $1,000 is better than nothing, and there is no reason to apply for only one scholarship. Since most applications require pretty much the same information, once collected, subsequent applications become relatively easy. Some of the more aggressive applicants collect so many scholarships they actually end up covering their school costs and having money left over.

The third most common complaint is that kids don’t bother to tell their parents what is available because they have enough work already and don’t want to spend their time filling out applications.

Fall tuition bills come in June and that is when parents start to freak out wondering how they’re going to pay for this. Of course, scholarship applications are due in March, so by June it’s too late.

If you don’t want to find yourself in this position, I suggest you contact your child’s guidance counselor now. You might also want to check out a couple of websites. Try www.fastweb.com, www.scholarships.com, www.collegeboard.com (scholarship search) or www.meritaid.com. I’ll be right there with you!

 

James Coyle
President

 

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President’s Message – March 2009

 Never have so many depended on so few

Quite a few years ago I was engaged in a lively discussion with one of my closest friends and mentors over what is the fair share for the rich to pay in taxes. With a graduated tax system at both the state and federal level, the wealthier you are the greater the percentage of your income goes to paying taxes.

My friend thought that the amount of income tax paid by the wealthy was far lower than it should be. The wealthy have more and can thus pay more, not only in gross amount, but also as a percentage of their total income.

I asked him what the level should be. How much of the total taxes collected should come from, say, the top 1 percent of income earners? Should it be 10 percent, or 20 percent? What’s the fair level?

My friend realized I knew what the number actually was and refused to say what he thought it should be, only that it was too low.

So how about my readers; what do you think the top 1 percent should contribute? 10 percent? 20 percent? What’s fair in your view?

Well now that you have the number in your mind, here’s how it actually plays out.

In 2006, the last year on a federal level I could find numbers for, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a whopping 40 percent of the total tax collected. The top 5 percent paid 60 percent; the top 10 percent paid 70 percent; the top 25 percent paid 86 percent; and the top 50 percent paid 97 percent of all personal income taxes collected. The bottom 50 percent ended up contributing only 3 percent.

To give some perspective, the top 1 percent earned more than $389,000. The top 5 percent earned more than $154,000. The top 10 percent was at $109,000+, the top 25 percent at $65,000+ and the top 50 percent at $32,000+.

In New Jersey, the story is much the same. In 2006, before the McGreevy tax increase, the top 1.5 percent of taxpayers accounted for 42 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning more than $250,000, or the top 4 percent, accounted for 54 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning less than $100,000, nearly 80 percent of the total returns, paid only 19 percent of the taxes.

Absent the fairness discussion, it’s easy to see why this isn’t good policy, especially in a state like New Jersey. The top tax rate in New Jersey is 6.5 times the lowest. Every dollar of income decline at the top income level lowers state revenue by 6.5 times as much as a dollar lost in the lowest tax bracket.

So what happens when that hotshot bond trader who works on Wall Street doesn’t get a bonus this year because the president has capped his compensation at $500,000 instead of the $2.5 million he made last year? The state’s tax collections fall by $180,000 and the federal government loses $700,000. This is exactly what we are seeing, and we can expect a huge hole in New Jersey’s tax collections for both this fiscal year and next.

Anyone in business knows that if you depend on a very few clients for your revenue you can wake up one day and be out of business. The alternative is to diversify.

On a tax basis this can be done by sharing the tax burden more widely, or it can be done by finding new sources of revenue. You could also cut expenses, but in government that is the last thing ever considered.

Unfortunately, I expect New Jersey to follow the New York example and raise income taxes on the top earners even more. What politician would ever discuss a tax increase for the many when he can discuss it for the few? The tyranny of the majority is alive and well and as shortsighted as ever.

 

James Coyle
President

 

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President’s Message – April 2009

 "Who’s afraid of the Big Bad Debt"

Every day we hear our national leaders pontificate on the evils of the exploding national debt. I’m not quite sure how many generations of our descendents we are now dooming to abject poverty. It is at least our grandchildren or maybe our great-grandchildren or even our greatgreat- grandchildren.

Or it may be that this is just the normal political bunk that we hear on so many issues. Politicians rarely understand the issues they are discussing, so they try to scare us with their magnitude.

Debt is growing, and it is growing rapidly, to be sure. As it now stands, our national debt is over $11 trillion, a number that is really hard to grasp. With the Troubled Assets Relief Program, several rounds of economic stimulus and a huge operating budget, we are looking at a trillion dollar deficit and another trillion dollars added to the debt. Big numbers.

Because these numbers are so big, it is easy to see why it is going to take so many generations to pay them back. Or is it?

Twenty years ago I bought a home computer with a 20 megabit hard drive, a huge amount of memory at the time. I now walk around with a 4 gigabit memory stick in my pocket and have a 500 gigabit hard drive in my computer. However, because of the growth in memory requirements, in percentage terms my hard drive is just as full now as it was 20 years ago.

In looking at debt, it is better to look at the relative size of the debt as compared to the economy rather than just some big number. At the end of 2008, the ratio of debt-to-gross domestic product was about 75 percent. This means it would take nine months of work to pay off the debt.

The highest debt-to-GDP ratio was back during World War II when it reached over 120 percent. The lowest post-WWII level was 33 percent during Carter’s presidency. By the end of Clinton’s first term it was up to 67 percent, almost where we are now. It did then drop until 2002, when it was 57 percent.

While this may be a great numeric way of showing we really aren’t shackling our children with debt, an analogy might make the debt-to-income analysis even easier to grasp.

Take for example a family with an annual income of $100,000. Assuming they have no other debt, it would not be unreasonable for them to buy a house for $300,000. Doing so would give them a debtto- income ratio of 300 percent, four times greater than our national level of 75 percent. However, since this is a long-term investment and property values over the long term appreciate, it actually makes good sense to incur debt.

Now that we have established that the debt isn’t really this huge monster that is going to devour future generations, why is analysis important? Because so much of the policy debate on economic stimulus devolves to a debate about the level of the debt.

When an economy is in recession, it is important to pump in a lot of stimulus, and fast. While spending on some things may have a more stimulative effect than others, speed is of the utmost importance. Limiting spending because of fear of the level of debt can constrict the economy. It also makes people feel negative about the stimulus when the most important aspect is to make them feel positive.

Even worse, debt discussion can and has lead to a discussion of tax increases. Nothing is a bigger drag on economic recovery than a tax increase during a recession. Taxes defeat the whole purpose of a stimulus package. People need money to spend, new money. If you take it from one guy to give it to someone else you get no net gain.

Alas, very few politicians understand the effect of their misstatements. The way the debate is shaping up, this may really be a long deep recession.

 

James Coyle
President

 

 

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President’s Message – May 2009

 In Praise of Doing More With Less

I like Sal Bonaccorso, the mayor of Clark. He is the only mayor from whom I have heard the magic words, “We will do more with less.”

In response to severe budget constraints, Clark has demonstrated some pretty innovative thinking and Mayor Bonaccorso has asked his Department of Public Works to pitch in and do more with less. And to their credit, the Clark employees readily bought in.

All the towns around here are in a quandary. State aid is down. Revenue from fees, permits and fines also is down. A lot of towns also have lost property tax revenue as houses have gone into foreclosure. Because business property values also have fallen, many businesses have appealed their assessments and lowered their taxes substantially.

Our towns are running out of money.

The solution favored by the unions representing municipal employees is pretty simple. Just raise taxes. Hey, they worked hard to get a municipal job that gives them high salaries, the best benefit program anywhere in the country and a 35-hour work week. Why shouldn’t town residents pay more? Who cares about their kid who wants to go to school or the fact that mom just got laid off.

Fortunately this is not the solution favored by most mayors and town councils. I think they have a much better feel for how severe this crisis is, and how untenable it is to expect their residents to fork over more of what little cash they have left.

The alternative typically utilized by town governments takes one of two major forms. The first is layoffs. As never before, towns are being forced to curtail bloated workforces. It is without question a harsh response to the recession. However, it also is the solution that most businesses have had to use to survive.

The second technique used to save money takes the form of furloughs. The state government also is using this technique. Furloughs have the advantage of sharing the pain. They also are a default pay cut for municipal workers, but since you are losing the work performed by the employee, the true amount of the savings is somewhat questionable.

Never, never, never discussed is a pay cut for city workers.

This is probably the most widely used adjustment in industry. Sometimes it is a simple cut in base pay. Other times it is a cut in bonuses that are so pervasive they have become part of expected income. In my own case, my income is going to be down dramatically this year in response to the recession. Let me tell you, I am feeling pain and the last thing I want to do is pay more taxes to keep someone in a cushy job.

In town after town I hear the cry, “How can you expect us to do more with less?” Well, personally, I think we should all be expected to do more with less. We should all work a little harder and a little longer. I know very few who have the luxury of a 40-hour work week, let alone 35 hours.

Mayor Bonaccorso is asking his employees to do more. He is telling them that he will not lay them off, ask them to cut their pay or take furloughs.

He is telling them that if they want to keep their jobs they are going to have to work harder. They are going to have to do more for the residents of Clark. They are not going to get more pay for this. They simply are going to be more productive members of society.

The mayor is to be commended. Others should look to his example.

 

James Coyle
President

 

 

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President’s Message – June 2009

 Irrational Thinking Won’t Produce a Rational Budget

Last month, on April 15, tax day, I attended a presentation by Assemblyman Joe Cryan (D-20) on next year’s budget. It was an excellent presentation where Assemblyman Cryan outlined the efforts of the Corzine Administration to produce a rational budget in the middle of the worst recession in generations. The Assemblyman described it as a budget of sacrifice and cutback, furloughs and belt tightening.

So far so good.

Then came the kicker in his presentation. Even with all this sacrifice and belt tightening the state government needs more revenue, i.e. a tax increase. The Assemblyman said don’t worry, however, taxes would be increased for only the top 1 percent of income earners, those making more than $500,000 per year.

Cryan said there were fewer than 30,000 filers in this category, and they could well afford to ante up a bit more to keep the state solvent. And it had been shown by Governor McGreevy that the wealthiest don’t flee the state when their taxes are raised.

Assemblyman Cryan is also the chairman of the Democratic Party for the state, and what he said was great politics. First he appealed to all of us with the talk of cutbacks and sacrifice. Then he said that the pain of the tax increase would be limited to only 1 percent of the population. The other 99 percent of us get off scot-free.

Good politics this may be, but it is bad policy.

Our politicians seem to forget that the annual variation in income is the greatest for that top 1 percent of earners. In other words, when times are good, these folks make a lot. This floods government coffers and leads to increased spending. Everyone is happy in these fat years.

In the lean years, however, the folks at the top make a lot less, and the government that is used to feasting on their largesse is suddenly put on a diet. Remember, nearly half of all state income tax revenue comes from this measly 1 percent of earners.

Thus a drop in income of just 10 percent for these earners results in a drop of 5 percent in state income tax revenue. Given that much of the income in this group is related to investment performance, it is easy to see why we are facing such a deep hole.

All we have to do is take a look at our leader, Governor Corzine. In 2007 the Governor had investment income of $11.8 million. His contribution to the state through income tax was just more than $1 million.

In 2008, however, the Governor lost nearly $3 million. That means that his state and federal taxes are zero. Here’s one of the richest guys in the state and he isn’t paying anything. A lot of the top 1 percenters are in this same fix. Investment revenues are down, bonuses are down and tax obligations are down.

On April 15 I mentioned to Assemblyman Cryan that I would be surprised if the tax collections that they expected for 2008 were accurate. I expected them to be way short.

And way short they are, with the shortfall now estimated to be $1.2 billion for this fiscal year. I would guess that this fact also will necessitate a new estimate of 2009 revenues. The economy is not recovering and large income growth in any sector certainly is not on the horizon.

So, what will they do? Will they see an even greater shortfall and raise taxes on the most volatile even more? If more tax revenue is needed, from a policy perspective, it would be much more sensible to raise taxes for a far greater number of people, maybe the top 50 percent of income earners.

We are, however, dealing with politicians. Why would we ever expect anything sensible to come out of them?

James Coyle
President

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President’s Message – July 2009

 Rote Versus Thinking is a Bad Choice

I just returned from a national forum on educational reform conducted by the Institute for a Competitive Workforce and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The forum focused on workforce preparedness: are our kids coming out of school prepared to go to work in jobs where they are most needed and what reforms are needed in our schools to get them there?

The conference was fascinating. It brought together some of the leading reform advocates from think tanks and foundations around the country. Interestingly, both sides of the political aisle seemed in harmony about the need to continue systemic reform and every indication is that the Obama administration is going to be inclined to a continuation and a refinement of the policies underway.

Not surprisingly No Child Left Behind was a major topic of discussion. Here the focus was primarily on urban school districts where the legislation seems to have a dramatic and positive effect. There was also a good deal of discussion on how some states try to subvert the process by making tests too easy, thus giving the impression that they are doing a good job teaching.

There is a new initiative to create national standards called the Common Core State Standards Initiative. I’m proud to say that New Jersey is one of the 46 states that have signed on to this proposal. Only Alaska, Missouri, South Carolina and Texas are lagging in coming on board.

However, I am very troubled by the determination of these new standards.

Over and over we read that the United States is falling behind in math and science. But are math and science the best measures of how well a society is doing? I think not. Though I did my graduate work in advanced applied mathematics, I know a lot of people who are very successful even though they can barely add.

We are told there are not enough people being trained to work in labs. We read that in our universities a disproportionately large percentage of the math and science students come from foreign countries. We are warned they are stealing our jobs at home, taking our technology abroad and soon we’re going to be a backwater nation.

To me this smacks of xenophobia. It is natural that foreign students gravitate to the sciences as language skill is less important in those pursuits. Also, a very large proportion of these students end up staying in the U.S. and fill the lab tech jobs we keep hearing about. Immigrants have always filled jobs in the U.S.; this has made us the country we are. As for taking technology home, the wealthier the country, the more valuable trading partner it is.

Many times during the forum the success of Singapore was highlighted. Singapore consistently scores at the highest end of the spectrum in math and science. Singapore is also the cleanest, greenest, most modern city in the world.

However, Singapore is a city, and not an especially big one. But it has the revenue of a county. In other words, the equivalent of all federal, state and local taxes together, with property taxes and sales taxes included, all go into its budget. Singapore has a lot of money to spend. I moved to New Jersey from Singapore, and I can attest to this first hand.

Yet Singaporeans are not sought-after managers. Their workers are incredibly skilled and able to do to perfection that which they have been taught to do. Whether working on an assembly line, in a lab running experiments or making accounting journal entries, they are super. Don’t put a problem before them that they have never seen, however, because you will be disappointed with the results.

This brings me to my big fear. The U.S. education system has been structured to teach people how to think. Unlike most of the world, we have not traditionally been taught by rote to simply memorize facts to regurgitate them on a test.

However, as we move toward national standards, this could become a very real possibility. We may get real good at turning out lab techs, but not musicians and writers and entrepreneurs.

James Coyle
President

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President’s Message – August 2009

 Let the Fat Cats Pay

I have been following with great interest President Obama’s health care reform initiative now working its way through Congress. It has become pretty clear, however, that the proposals moving through the House and Senate are not about reforming the health care system in this country, but rather about improving access to it.

There are nearly 50 million people in this country, most employed, without medical insurance, the highest percentage of any developed country. For the most part these people are denied all but emergency health care, meaning they have to go to the nearest hospital emergency room when anything is wrong with them. This is a terribly inefficient way to deliver health services, and leads to cost increases for those with medical insurance.

The president’s health care initiative is aimed at getting these people some type of medical coverage. This may involve requiring them to buy coverage and subsidizing those who cannot afford it, and/or offering some type of government insurance program that can be purchased much more cheaply than normal commercial medical insurance.

So while this doesn’t provide much reform to the health care system or the factors causing prices to increase year after year, it is a pretty admirable goal to get more people insured. The cost of doing this is staggering, however, with estimates originally topping $1 trillion over the next 10 years, and somehow ultimately massaged down to only $600 billion.

So, how does U.S. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) propose we pay for all this? It’s easy – just raise taxes on people who make more than $250,000 per year. They’re rich. They can afford it. Besides, there aren’t very many of them, so they are an easy target.

When the Rangel Surtax is added to all the other new income taxes, rates for those earning more than $200,000 are going to skyrocket. According to analysis by the Tax Foundation, the highest combined state and federal income tax rates in New Jersey will top 55 percent!

New Jersey has a lot of families that make more than $250,000 per year, so the burden of this reform is going to fall disproportionately on our state. In other words, New Jersey will be an even bigger looser on the federal tax scheme than it already is.

I have a different solution, one that not only would raise more money more fairly, but would also get to the core of the health care problem. You see, I looked in the mirror recently, sideways, and I saw what the real problem is: I’m getting fat.

The average American is about 20 pounds overweight. Much of our increased demand on the medical infrastructure is weight-related. Heart disease, diabetes, stroke, back pain, joint replacements very often can be traced back to our weight. If we were not so fat, if we were in better shape, if we ate better and less, our health care needs would plummet.

So, the solution is to tax fat. If a tax rate were set at $100 per pound that we are overweight, the government would generate about $600 billion dollars per year. This would more than pay for all the Obama initiatives and leave plenty left over to radically modernize the health care system.

More importantly, we would be incented to start taking better care of ourselves. Boy, if it were going to save me $1,000 dollars in taxes, I would get really serious about dropping 10 pounds. With lower body weights, blood pressure and cholesterol would drop, cutting back on the need for medication and heart surgery. Smaller waistlines would result in fewer back problems, a leading cause of lost work time. All of this would result in a decrease in health care costs.

Most importantly, like smokers, overweight people put a burden on the health care system. It is only fair that we take responsibility for our actions. It is time for us as individuals to quit being lazy and expecting someone else to pay for the consequences.

James Coyle
President

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President’s Message – September 2009

 Vroom, Vroom – finally some real stimulus

I have been a big supporter of economic stimulus. Though I have questioned most of the programs that the Congress came up with, the concept was sound.

When Congress passed the economic stimulus package last February, it was properly derided as being misguided. Little of the money was to be made immediately available, and most was directed to pet projects of influential congressmen. Transportation, education and public safety all featured prominently in the legislation.

Spending in these areas does little to stimulate the economy. Instead, expenditures in these areas can more reasonably be looked at as investments in the future. When the economy recovers, it is smart to have a good infrastructure to support the movement of goods. It is smart to have well educated and trained workers to be able to fill jobs.

However, this is all in the future and, as John Maynard Keynes said, “In the long run we are all dead.”

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), as the stimulus plan is officially known, did have a very important effect on the economy, however, in that it changed the debate. No longer was the discussion focused on the woe of the situation, but rather on what to do about it. Because we began to feel the government was finally fully (though maybe foolishly) engaged in searching for solutions, we began to breathe easier.

To see how fully changed we were by spring, just compare your reaction to the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers with the bankruptcy filings of Chrysler and General Motors. The first had us quaking and the stock market in free fall. The second had us hardly blinking. It was an amazing turn around in our collective psyche.

Finally, however, we have seen how effective a true stimulus program can be. Thanks to an idea proposed by Princeton economist Alan Blinder, Congress in June set up the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), aka Cash for Clunkers. Compared to the $787 billion in ARRA, the initial $1 billion allocated to CARS was a drop in the bucket. Its stimulus effect on the economy, however, has been far greater.

CARS is a program that is actually designed to get people to do what they need to do to end the recession, and that is to buy big-ticket consumables. Tax rebates have gone to pay down debt. Unemployment insurance extensions have gone to buy basics. These have done nothing to stimulate new economic activity.

CARS, on the other hand, has gotten people doing exactly what is needed, buying cars. In the last week in July, 250,000 cars were sold under the program. This will keep factories open and people employed.

The way the program was designed also will have long-lasting environmental consequences. The gas mileage of the cars sold represents nearly a 70 percent increase over those turned in. This will result in less gas consumed and less pollution in the environment. Both are very positive side effects of the program.

Fortunately Congress is continuing to fund the program. I think they should think of other similar multi-benefit programs. These might include Cash for Windows to encourage homeowners and businesses to upgrade their windows. I did this in my house several years ago and cut my heating and cooling costs dramatically. This could also be done for high efficiency furnaces and major appliances.

For decades we have discussed the importance of these types of initiatives. It is time we do them. They are good for the environment, good for national security and good for the economy.

James Coyle
President

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President’s Message – October  2009

Watchdogs are Supposed to Make Noise

In 1928 9-year-old Walter Collins disappeared from his home in Los Angeles. The Los Angeles Police, under community pressure, launched a  nationwide search, and eventually found “Walter” in Illinois. Only when he was reunited with his mother, Christine Collins, “Walter” turned out not to be Walter Collins.

Mrs. Collins complained to the police, but she was told to take the boy home and she was sure to realize she was mistaken. A couple weeks later she returned to the police with dental records, and instead of admitting their error, Christine Collins was committed to a mental institution. Only massive public outrage led to her release.

This story was made into a movie, The Changeling, which I watched recently with my wife. It was a very disturbing movie about the abuse of power. Afterward, my wife, who like me had been horrified by the events portrayed, commented that “thank goodness abuses like that can no longer happen.”

Unfortunately abuses like this do occur with great regularity. It is only the public outcry that seems to have diminished.

Union County is blessed with an organization named the Union County Watchdog Association. Led by Tina Renna, the group works tirelessly to keep Union County government honest. They attend all the Board of Chosen Freeholders meetings. They demand explanations of nepotistic hirings. They track expenses of county government offices and employees and point out abuses. They expose cover-ups and double dealing. They do all the things that good government requires.

And how are Ms. Renna and her group of watchers repaid? With ridicule, abuse, character assassination and sanction. It is incredible and disheartening to witness the treatment these people receive. They are taxpaying, voting citizens who are exercising their constitutional rights to question their elected officials and hold them accountable for their actions. Rather than be treated w ith courtesy and respect they are vilified and demeaned. Often, like Christine Collins, their sanity is called into question.

Recently a particularly ignoble piece of literature has appeared called the Kruger Report. It is sent out anonymously, but given that it is unflagging in its support of the freeholders, on e can guess its origin. One can also only guess at the intent of its name. Is it named for Freddie Kruger, because it certainly has a slasher feel to it. The intent of the Kruger Report is to slander Ms. Renna, to undermine her credibility and to have us think she is insane (shades of Christine Collins).

In spite of all this, Ms. Renna and her watchdogs continue the watch. With the Open Public Records Act (OPRA) they are able to get information that government would rather hide. The Watchdog Association had to take Union County to court to get this access. They take what they find to freeholder meetings and ask for clarification or justification or simply shine the light where the  powers that be would rather it not be shown.

Recently, the American Civil Liberties Union intervened on behalf of the Watchdog Association when the freeholder board denied them the ability to ask questions regarding relatives on the county payroll. Under threat of another unwinnable lawsuit, the freeholders apologized and now allow the questioning.

Because of the internet, the Watchdog Association is able to make public its findings. Their website, www.countywatchers.com, provides a wealth of information on what is happening in  the county, information that is rarely available in any other place, especially since the demise of the county section of the Star Ledger. It is a site that I visit daily.

What really differentiates Tina Renna from Christine Collins is the lack of public outrage. When Collins was attacked, the citizens of Los Angeles rose up and demanded her release in public demonstration. Perhaps if more county residents were to read www.countywatchers.com they would realize that this is just as important.

James Coyle
President

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President’s Message – November  2009

Never Have So Many Depended on So Few

Quite a few years ago I was engaged in a lively discussion with one of my closest friends and mentors over what is the fair share for the rich to pay in taxes. With a graduated tax system at both the state and federal level, the wealthier you are the greater the percentage of your income goes to paying taxes.

My friend thought that the amount of income tax paid by the wealthy was far lower than it should be. The wealthy have more and can thus pay more, not only in gross amount, but also as a percentage of their total income.

I asked him what the level should be. How much of the total taxes collected should come from, say, the top 1 percent of income earners? Should it be 10 percent, or 20 percent? What’s the fair level?

My friend realized I knew what the number actually was and refused to say what he thought it should be, only that it was too low.

So how about my readers; what do you think the top 1 percent should contribute? 10 percent? 20 percent? What’s fair in your view?

Well now that you have the number in your mind, here’s how it actually plays out.

In 2006, the last year on a federal level I could find numbers for, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a whopping 40 percent of the total tax collected. The top 5 percent paid 60 percent; the top 10 percent paid 70 percent; the top 25 percent paid 86 percent; and the top 50 percent paid 97 percent of all personal income taxes collected. The bottom 50 percent ended up contributing only 3 percent.

To give some perspective, the top 1 percent earned more than $389,000. The top 5 percent earned more than $154,000. The top 10 percent was at $109,000+, the top 25 percent at $65,000+ and the top 50 percent at $32,000+.

In New Jersey, the story is much the same. In 2006, before the McGreevy tax increase, the top 1.5 percent of taxpayers accounted for 42 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning more than $250,000, or the top 4 percent, accounted for 54 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning less than $100,000, nearly 80 percent of the total returns, paid only 19 percent of the taxes.

Absent the fairness discussion, it’s easy to see why this isn’t good policy, especially in a state like New Jersey. The top tax rate in New Jersey is 6.5 times the lowest. Every dollar of income decline at the top income level lowers state revenue by 6.5 times as much as a dollar lost in the lowest tax bracket.

So what happens when that hotshot bond trader who works on Wall Street doesn’t get a bonus this year because the president has capped his compensation at $500,000 instead of the $2.5 million he made last year? The state’s tax collections fall by $180,000 and the federal government loses $700,000.

This is exactly what we are seeing, and we can expect a huge hole in New Jersey’s tax collections for both this fiscal year and next.

Anyone in business knows that if you depend on a very few clients for your revenue you can wake up one day and be out of business. The alternative is to diversify.

On a tax basis this can be done by sharing the tax burden more widely, or it can be done by finding new sources of revenue. You could also cut expenses, but in government that is the last thing ever considered.

Unfortunately, I expect New Jersey to follow the New York example and raise income taxes on the top earners even more. What politician would ever discuss a tax increase for the many when he can discuss it for the few? The tyranny of the majority is alive and well and as shortsighted as ever.

James Coyle
President

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President’s Message – December  2009

The Great Myth

Pretty much all the discussion concerning health care reform has devolved into a shouting match over the so-called public option.

Unfortunately the fact that the public option has very much to do with either health care reform or cost control is a great myth.

But wait, you say, Nancy Pelosi has assured us that having health insurance sold by a government agency will have the immediate result of lowering insurance premiums. How can she be wrong?

Well, she’s not wrong. She’s just disingenuous. Here’s why.

If a public agency starts to sell health insurance, it has two very big advantages over private insurers. First, it will not be subject to taxation, neither at a state or federal level. This will give it an immediate saving of between 20 and 25 percent, equivalent to the tax imposed on health insurance companies. Of course, it also means a huge decline in tax revenues, for states in particular, but that’s another story.

Second, a government agency, probably working in concert with Medicare and Medicaid, would be a price-setter rather than a price-taker. This means they will tell hospitals and doctors how much they are going to pay for a procedure.

So, haven’t I just proved the point that the public option will lower costs? Yes, in year one it certainly will lower costs. Costs could be lowered by an even greater amount if taxes were also waived for private insurers and they could reimburse hospitals and doctors at the same rate as the public option. Hey, this is only fair.

But it is in year two where the problem arises. You see, insurance companies are not increasing prices, they are simply passing through the higher prices hospitals and doctors are charging. My insurance went up by 20 percent this year. In the past there have been even greater increases.

So if the public option decreases prices by, say, 20 percent, it is likely a one-year thing. Prices will continue to go up at probably the same rate even with the public option.

So the savings are at best fleeting. No panacea here, only a myth of one.

But even if the public option doesn’t really save money, doesn’t it at least make us healthier? If more people have insurance won’t they get better care?

This again is true, but also misleading. It is incorrect to say that people without health insurance do not get care. There is not a hospital in this country that will turn away someone in need. An ambulance will always transport an accident victim whether or not they have insurance. While care delivered this way is the most expensive of all options, care is available for everyone in this country.

So it would indeed be better for people to have insurance. Health care would be delivered in a much more cost-effective way. But also it would be used more extensively. In other words, demand would go up on a system that is already strained to the limit. And what does this mean? Again, that costs will increase even more.

This really appears to be no-win situation whichever way you look. The public option isn’t going to cut costs, and the more people with insurance the higher costs will tend. And that is because all this discussion misses the true underlying problem.

We are fat and lazy and growing old. Until these facts are addressed, costs will go up and up.

 

James Coyle
President

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