|
Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce
Past President’s Messages - 2009
President’s
Message – January 2009
The Chickens Have Come Home to Roost
Almost all of us have some kind
of insurance or another. It can be car insurance or
health insurance. Homeowners, workman’s comp and
life insurance are common. There are a myriad of
types of insurance.
Now if you pay your premium you
expect to get coverage when you file a claim. And if
you find that the administrators of the insurance
have used your claim money to pay something else,
like their gambling debts, you’ll be pretty mad. In
fact, there are laws against misappropriating funds
that have been put into the care of a trustee, and
usually people who do this are liable to go to jail.
Except for the jail part, this is
exactly what has happened with New Jersey’s
Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund. This fund was set
up to provide income for people when they lose their
job. It is not charity, it is insurance, and
employers and employees both make contributions
Now that the economy is turning
south and unemployment is skyrocketing, the need for
the Unemployment Trust Fund has never been greater.
Unfortunately its resources have never been more
meager. It isn’t that we haven’t been paying our
premiums; rather it is the governor and the
Legislature who have been diverting our money for
their own ends.
Over the last few years, more
than $4 billion has been diverted from the
Unemployment Trust Fund. This has been over the
vocal objections of the Gateway Regional Chamber of
Commerce and every other business group in the
state.
Businesses and their employees
pay about $2 billion into the fund each year. In
2004, the fund was carrying a balance of $3 billion,
before it was raided. A couple of months ago, the
fund balance had fallen to $161 million. Last month,
claims were $169 million, up almost 25 percent from
November 2007.
Right now, the Unemployment Trust
Fund is barely self-sustaining. With claims expected
to climb each month well into 2009, the only thing
that will save it is a big increase in unemployment
taxes. Nearly $400 million, or a 20 percent increase
in the total collections, will be necessary.
But, as the labor force
contracts, because businesses close their doors or
cut their workforce, the increased burden will fall
on fewer people. So, whether we like it or not, we
are looking at a major tax increase, all because the
government diverted the surplus.
The money was taken from the fund
to pay for the state’s charity care program. While
stealing from Peter (the unemployed) to pay Paul
(the uninsured) may have seemed like a good idea,
the fact is that being unemployed and uninsured tend
to go hand in hand: the more people who lose their
jobs, the more people who lose their insurance.
For years the Gateway Chamber has
argued that the state’s charity care program needs
its own funding source. Charity Care is an important
government policy. No one should be denied care
because they don’t have insurance.
However, if we as a state make
this decision, we should also be cognizant that
someone has to bear the cost, and that should not be
the people who have just lost their jobs. The
Legislature in its usual fashion has done what is
expedient, not what is right.
Unfortunately government is not
held to the same standard as business. Those in
government make laws, but then do not apply them to
themselves. If they did, a whole bunch of
blackguards would be looking at jail time.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s
Message – February 2009
Money on the Table
As with so many others, I have been receiving my end-of-year financial
statements and looking at them with dismay over years of savings that have
diminished in such a short period of time. It is a depressing perusal. Fortunately,
I have quite a few years until retirement, and with luck their value will recover
before then.
With one group of investments, however, I am feeling a great deal of distress.
For years my wife and I have saved for our sons’ college education. We were
smart; we put these savings in tax-exempt 529 plans so they would attain their maximum value.
In looking through these statements, I realize that more than a year’s worth of tuition savings has simply
disappeared. And there are only two years left until I have to start paying tuition.
Unfortunately, my situation is not unique. I know there are many other families facing the same problem
or, perhaps worse, have little savings set aside to help their kids get through college to begin with.
What is very surprising to me is that more families do little about it, even though there is a great deal of
money out there in the form of scholarships that can help ease the burden of paying tuition.
For years the Gateway Chamber has run a small scholarship program. It is geared toward graduating high
school students in Union County who have an interest in pursuing technical or vocational training. It is not
directed at the straight-A student going to an Ivy League college, but rather to the student who may not be
able to afford the cost of going to a four year school or who may not have the grades to get in.
The scholarship is not a big one – usually the amount awarded is $1,000 – but it often can make a big
difference in whether or not school is an option.
What is surprising is that some years it is very difficult to find enough applications for us to give away the
money. Often, the bulk of the applicants will come from one area high school with only a couple from other
schools. Several of our local chambers that also award scholarships have faced a similar paucity of applicants.
Not understanding why anyone would not devote a couple hours of time to get a $1,000 payoff, I asked a
number of high school guidance counselors why so few kids bother to apply for scholarships. Their responses
show a real frustration at how far down financial aid really is on most people’s lists.
Quite frankly, most counselors believe that the main reason families don’t apply for scholarships is because
they don’t think they’ll get them. Either the parents make too much money or the kids’ grades are not good
enough for them to have any real chance at getting anything. These families don’t understand that there are
loads of scholarships that are not need- or performance-based.
The second big reason is that many scholarships aren’t for a whole lot of money. This is certainly true, but
$1,000 is better than nothing, and there is no reason to apply for only one scholarship. Since most applications
require pretty much the same information, once collected, subsequent applications become relatively easy.
Some of the more aggressive applicants collect so many scholarships they actually end up covering their
school costs and having money left over.
The third most common complaint is that kids don’t bother to tell their parents what is available because
they have enough work already and don’t want to spend their time filling out applications.
Fall tuition bills come in June and that is when parents start to freak out wondering how they’re going to
pay for this. Of course, scholarship applications are due in March, so by June it’s too late.
If you don’t want to find yourself in this position, I suggest you contact your child’s guidance counselor
now. You might also want to check out a couple of websites. Try www.fastweb.com, www.scholarships.com,
www.collegeboard.com (scholarship search) or www.meritaid.com. I’ll be right there with you!
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s
Message – March 2009
Never have so many depended on so few
Quite a few years ago I was engaged in a lively discussion with one of my
closest friends and mentors over what is the fair share for the rich to pay
in taxes. With a graduated tax system at both the state and federal level,
the wealthier you are the greater the percentage of your income goes
to paying taxes.
My friend thought that the amount of income tax paid by the wealthy
was far lower than it should be. The wealthy have more and can thus pay
more, not only in gross amount, but also as a percentage of their total income.
I asked him what the level should be. How much of the total taxes collected should come from, say,
the top 1 percent of income earners? Should it be 10 percent, or 20 percent? What’s the fair level?
My friend realized I knew what the number actually was and refused to say what he thought it should
be, only that it was too low.
So how about my readers; what do you think the top 1 percent should contribute? 10 percent? 20
percent? What’s fair in your view?
Well now that you have the number in your mind, here’s how it actually plays out.
In 2006, the last year on a federal level I could find numbers for, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a
whopping 40 percent of the total tax collected. The top 5 percent paid 60 percent; the top 10 percent
paid 70 percent; the top 25 percent paid 86 percent; and the top 50 percent paid 97 percent of all
personal income taxes collected. The bottom 50 percent ended up contributing only 3 percent.
To give some perspective, the top 1 percent earned more than $389,000. The top 5 percent earned
more than $154,000. The top 10 percent was at $109,000+, the top 25 percent at $65,000+ and the
top 50 percent at $32,000+.
In New Jersey, the story is much the same. In 2006, before the McGreevy tax increase, the top
1.5 percent of taxpayers accounted for 42 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning more than
$250,000, or the top 4 percent, accounted for 54 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning less
than $100,000, nearly 80 percent of the total returns, paid only 19 percent of the taxes.
Absent the fairness discussion, it’s easy to see why this isn’t good policy, especially in a state like New
Jersey. The top tax rate in New Jersey is 6.5 times the lowest. Every dollar of income decline at the top
income level lowers state revenue by 6.5 times as much as a dollar lost in the lowest tax bracket.
So what happens when that hotshot bond trader who works on Wall Street doesn’t get a bonus this
year because the president has capped his compensation at $500,000 instead of the $2.5 million he
made last year? The state’s tax collections fall by $180,000 and the federal government loses $700,000.
This is exactly what we are seeing, and we can expect a huge hole in New Jersey’s tax collections for
both this fiscal year and next.
Anyone in business knows that if you depend on a very few clients for your revenue you can wake
up one day and be out of business. The alternative is to diversify.
On a tax basis this can be done by sharing the tax burden more widely, or it can be done by finding
new sources of revenue. You could also cut expenses, but in government that is the last thing ever
considered.
Unfortunately, I expect New Jersey to follow the New York example and raise income taxes on the
top earners even more. What politician would ever discuss a tax increase for the many when he can
discuss it for the few? The tyranny of the majority is alive and well and as shortsighted as ever.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – April 2009
"Who’s afraid of the Big Bad Debt"
Every day we hear our national leaders pontificate on the evils of the
exploding national debt. I’m not quite sure how many generations of
our descendents we are now dooming to abject poverty. It is at least
our grandchildren or maybe our great-grandchildren or even our greatgreat-
grandchildren.
Or it may be that this is just the normal political bunk that we hear on
so many issues. Politicians rarely understand the issues they are discussing,
so they try to scare us with their magnitude.
Debt is growing, and it is growing rapidly, to be sure. As it now stands, our national debt is over $11
trillion, a number that is really hard to grasp. With the Troubled Assets Relief Program, several rounds
of economic stimulus and a huge operating budget, we are looking at a trillion dollar deficit and another
trillion dollars added to the debt. Big numbers.
Because these numbers are so big, it is easy to see why it is going to take so many generations to
pay them back. Or is it?
Twenty years ago I bought a home computer with a 20 megabit hard drive, a huge amount of memory
at the time. I now walk around with a 4 gigabit memory stick in my pocket and have a 500 gigabit hard
drive in my computer. However, because of the growth in memory requirements, in percentage terms
my hard drive is just as full now as it was 20 years ago.
In looking at debt, it is better to look at the relative size of the debt as compared to the economy
rather than just some big number. At the end of 2008, the ratio of debt-to-gross domestic product
was about 75 percent. This means it would take nine months of work to pay off the debt.
The highest debt-to-GDP ratio was back during World War II when it reached over 120 percent. The
lowest post-WWII level was 33 percent during Carter’s presidency. By the end of Clinton’s first term it
was up to 67 percent, almost where we are now. It did then drop until 2002, when it was 57 percent.
While this may be a great numeric way of showing we really aren’t shackling our children with debt,
an analogy might make the debt-to-income analysis even easier to grasp.
Take for example a family with an annual income of $100,000. Assuming they have no other debt, it
would not be unreasonable for them to buy a house for $300,000. Doing so would give them a debtto-
income ratio of 300 percent, four times greater than our national level of 75 percent. However,
since this is a long-term investment and property values over the long term appreciate, it actually makes
good sense to incur debt.
Now that we have established that the debt isn’t really this huge monster that is going to devour
future generations, why is analysis important? Because so much of the policy debate on economic
stimulus devolves to a debate about the level of the debt.
When an economy is in recession, it is important to pump in a lot of stimulus, and fast. While spending
on some things may have a more stimulative effect than others, speed is of the utmost importance.
Limiting spending because of fear of the level of debt can constrict the economy. It also makes people
feel negative about the stimulus when the most important aspect is to make them feel positive.
Even worse, debt discussion can and has lead to a discussion of tax increases. Nothing is a bigger
drag on economic recovery than a tax increase during a recession. Taxes defeat the whole purpose of
a stimulus package. People need money to spend, new money. If you take it from one guy to give it to
someone else you get no net gain.
Alas, very few politicians understand the effect of their misstatements. The way the debate is shaping
up, this may really be a long deep recession.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – May 2009
In Praise of Doing More With Less
I like Sal Bonaccorso, the mayor of Clark. He is the only mayor from whom
I have heard the magic words, “We will do more with less.”
In response to severe budget constraints, Clark has demonstrated some
pretty innovative thinking and Mayor Bonaccorso has asked his Department
of Public Works to pitch in and do more with less. And to their credit, the
Clark employees readily bought in.
All the towns around here are in a quandary. State aid is down. Revenue
from fees, permits and fines also is down. A lot of towns also have lost property tax revenue as houses
have gone into foreclosure. Because business property values also have fallen, many businesses have
appealed their assessments and lowered their taxes substantially.
Our towns are running out of money.
The solution favored by the unions representing municipal employees is pretty simple. Just raise taxes.
Hey, they worked hard to get a municipal job that gives them high salaries, the best benefit program
anywhere in the country and a 35-hour work week. Why shouldn’t town residents pay more? Who
cares about their kid who wants to go to school or the fact that mom just got laid off.
Fortunately this is not the solution favored by most mayors and town councils. I think they have a
much better feel for how severe this crisis is, and how untenable it is to expect their residents to fork
over more of what little cash they have left.
The alternative typically utilized by town governments takes one of two major forms. The first is
layoffs. As never before, towns are being forced to curtail bloated workforces. It is without question
a harsh response to the recession. However, it also is the solution that most businesses have had to
use to survive.
The second technique used to save money takes the form of furloughs. The state government also
is using this technique. Furloughs have the advantage of sharing the pain. They also are a default pay
cut for municipal workers, but since you are losing the work performed by the employee, the true
amount of the savings is somewhat questionable.
Never, never, never discussed is a pay cut for city workers.
This is probably the most widely used adjustment in industry. Sometimes it is a simple cut in base pay.
Other times it is a cut in bonuses that are so pervasive they have become part of expected income. In
my own case, my income is going to be down dramatically this year in response to the recession. Let
me tell you, I am feeling pain and the last thing I want to do is pay more taxes to keep someone in a
cushy job.
In town after town I hear the cry, “How can you expect us to do more with less?” Well, personally,
I think we should all be expected to do more with less. We should all work a little harder and a little
longer. I know very few who have the luxury of a 40-hour work week, let alone 35 hours.
Mayor Bonaccorso is asking his employees to do more. He is telling them that he will not lay them
off, ask them to cut their pay or take furloughs.
He is telling them that if they want to keep their jobs they are going to have to work harder. They
are going to have to do more for the residents of Clark. They are not going to get more pay for this.
They simply are going to be more productive members of society.
The mayor is to be commended. Others should look to his example.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – June 2009
Irrational Thinking Won’t Produce a Rational Budget
Last month, on April 15, tax day, I attended a presentation by Assemblyman
Joe Cryan (D-20) on next year’s budget. It was an excellent presentation
where Assemblyman Cryan outlined the efforts of the Corzine
Administration to produce a rational budget in the middle of the worst
recession in generations. The Assemblyman described it as a budget of
sacrifice and cutback, furloughs and belt tightening.
So far so good.
Then came the kicker in his presentation. Even with all this sacrifice and belt tightening the state
government needs more revenue, i.e. a tax increase. The Assemblyman said don’t worry, however, taxes
would be increased for only the top 1 percent of income earners, those making more than $500,000
per year.
Cryan said there were fewer than 30,000 filers in this category, and they could well afford to ante up
a bit more to keep the state solvent. And it had been shown by Governor McGreevy that the wealthiest
don’t flee the state when their taxes are raised.
Assemblyman Cryan is also the chairman of the Democratic Party for the state, and what he said
was great politics. First he appealed to all of us with the talk of cutbacks and sacrifice. Then he said
that the pain of the tax increase would be limited to only 1 percent of the population. The other 99
percent of us get off scot-free.
Good politics this may be, but it is bad policy.
Our politicians seem to forget that the annual variation in income is the greatest for that top 1 percent
of earners. In other words, when times are good, these folks make a lot. This floods government coffers
and leads to increased spending. Everyone is happy in these fat years.
In the lean years, however, the folks at the top make a lot less, and the government that is used
to feasting on their largesse is suddenly put on a diet. Remember, nearly half of all state income tax
revenue comes from this measly 1 percent of earners.
Thus a drop in income of just 10 percent for these earners results in a drop of 5 percent in state
income tax revenue. Given that much of the income in this group is related to investment performance,
it is easy to see why we are facing such a deep hole.
All we have to do is take a look at our leader, Governor Corzine. In 2007 the Governor had
investment income of $11.8 million. His contribution to the state through income tax was just more
than $1 million.
In 2008, however, the Governor lost nearly $3 million. That means that his state and federal taxes
are zero. Here’s one of the richest guys in the state and he isn’t paying anything. A lot of the top
1 percenters are in this same fix. Investment revenues are down, bonuses are down and tax obligations
are down.
On April 15 I mentioned to Assemblyman Cryan that I would be surprised if the tax collections that
they expected for 2008 were accurate. I expected them to be way short.
And way short they are, with the shortfall now estimated to be $1.2 billion for this fiscal year. I
would guess that this fact also will necessitate a new estimate of 2009 revenues. The economy is not
recovering and large income growth in any sector certainly is not on the horizon.
So, what will they do? Will they see an even greater shortfall and raise taxes on the most volatile
even more? If more tax revenue is needed, from a policy perspective, it would be much more sensible
to raise taxes for a far greater number of people, maybe the top 50 percent of income earners.
We are, however, dealing with politicians. Why would we ever expect anything sensible to come
out of them?
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – July 2009
Rote Versus Thinking is a Bad Choice
I just returned from a national forum on educational reform conducted by
the Institute for a Competitive Workforce and the Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation. The forum focused on workforce preparedness: are our kids
coming out of school prepared to go to work in jobs where they are most
needed and what reforms are needed in our schools to get them there?
The conference was fascinating. It brought together some of the leading
reform advocates from think tanks and foundations around the country.
Interestingly, both sides of the political aisle seemed in harmony about the
need to continue systemic reform and every indication is that the Obama administration is going to be
inclined to a continuation and a refinement of the policies underway.
Not surprisingly No Child Left Behind was a major topic of discussion. Here the focus was primarily
on urban school districts where the legislation seems to have a dramatic and positive effect. There
was also a good deal of discussion on how some states try to subvert the process by making tests too
easy, thus giving the impression that they are doing a good job teaching.
There is a new initiative to create national standards called the Common Core State Standards
Initiative. I’m proud to say that New Jersey is one of the 46 states that have signed on to this proposal.
Only Alaska, Missouri, South Carolina and Texas are lagging in coming on board.
However, I am very troubled by the determination of these new standards.
Over and over we read that the United States is falling behind in math and science. But are math
and science the best measures of how well a society is doing? I think not. Though I did my graduate
work in advanced applied mathematics, I know a lot of people who are very successful even though
they can barely add.
We are told there are not enough people being trained to work in labs. We read that in our universities
a disproportionately large percentage of the math and science students come from foreign countries.
We are warned they are stealing our jobs at home, taking our technology abroad and soon we’re going
to be a backwater nation.
To me this smacks of xenophobia. It is natural that foreign students gravitate to the sciences as
language skill is less important in those pursuits. Also, a very large proportion of these students end
up staying in the U.S. and fill the lab tech jobs we keep hearing about. Immigrants have always filled
jobs in the U.S.; this has made us the country we are. As for taking technology home, the wealthier
the country, the more valuable trading partner it is.
Many times during the forum the success of Singapore was highlighted. Singapore consistently scores
at the highest end of the spectrum in math and science. Singapore is also the cleanest, greenest, most
modern city in the world.
However, Singapore is a city, and not an especially big one. But it has the revenue of a county. In
other words, the equivalent of all federal, state and local taxes together, with property taxes and sales
taxes included, all go into its budget. Singapore has a lot of money to spend. I moved to New Jersey
from Singapore, and I can attest to this first hand.
Yet Singaporeans are not sought-after managers. Their workers are incredibly skilled and able to do
to perfection that which they have been taught to do. Whether working on an assembly line, in a lab
running experiments or making accounting journal entries, they are super. Don’t put a problem before
them that they have never seen, however, because you will be disappointed with the results.
This brings me to my big fear. The U.S. education system has been structured to teach people how
to think. Unlike most of the world, we have not traditionally been taught by rote to simply memorize
facts to regurgitate them on a test.
However, as we move toward national standards, this could become a very real possibility. We may
get real good at turning out lab techs, but not musicians and writers and entrepreneurs.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – August 2009
Let the Fat Cats Pay
I have been following with great interest President Obama’s health care
reform initiative now working its way through Congress. It has become
pretty clear, however, that the proposals moving through the House and
Senate are not about reforming the health care system in this country, but
rather about improving access to it.
There are nearly 50 million people in this country, most employed,
without medical insurance, the highest percentage of any developed country.
For the most part these people are denied all but emergency health care,
meaning they have to go to the nearest hospital emergency room when anything is wrong with them.
This is a terribly inefficient way to deliver health services, and leads to cost increases for those with
medical insurance.
The president’s health care initiative is aimed at getting these people some type of medical coverage.
This may involve requiring them to buy coverage and subsidizing those who cannot afford it, and/or
offering some type of government insurance program that can be purchased much more cheaply than
normal commercial medical insurance.
So while this doesn’t provide much reform to the health care system or the factors causing prices
to increase year after year, it is a pretty admirable goal to get more people insured. The cost of doing
this is staggering, however, with estimates originally topping $1 trillion over the next 10 years, and
somehow ultimately massaged down to only $600 billion.
So, how does U.S. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) propose we pay for all this? It’s easy – just raise taxes
on people who make more than $250,000 per year. They’re rich. They can afford it. Besides, there
aren’t very many of them, so they are an easy target.
When the Rangel Surtax is added to all the other new income taxes, rates for those earning more than
$200,000 are going to skyrocket. According to analysis by the Tax Foundation, the highest combined
state and federal income tax rates in New Jersey will top 55 percent!
New Jersey has a lot of families that make more than $250,000 per year, so the burden of this reform
is going to fall disproportionately on our state. In other words, New Jersey will be an even bigger looser
on the federal tax scheme than it already is.
I have a different solution, one that not only would raise more money more fairly, but would also
get to the core of the health care problem. You see, I looked in the mirror recently, sideways, and I
saw what the real problem is: I’m getting fat.
The average American is about 20 pounds overweight. Much of our increased demand on the medical
infrastructure is weight-related. Heart disease, diabetes, stroke, back pain, joint replacements very
often can be traced back to our weight. If we were not so fat, if we were in better shape, if we ate
better and less, our health care needs would plummet.
So, the solution is to tax fat. If a tax rate were set at $100 per pound that we are overweight, the
government would generate about $600 billion dollars per year. This would more than pay for all the
Obama initiatives and leave plenty left over to radically modernize the health care system.
More importantly, we would be incented to start taking better care of ourselves. Boy, if it were going
to save me $1,000 dollars in taxes, I would get really serious about dropping 10 pounds. With lower
body weights, blood pressure and cholesterol would drop, cutting back on the need for medication
and heart surgery. Smaller waistlines would result in fewer back problems, a leading cause of lost work
time. All of this would result in a decrease in health care costs.
Most importantly, like smokers, overweight people put a burden on the health care system. It is
only fair that we take responsibility for our actions. It is time for us as individuals to quit being lazy and
expecting someone else to pay for the consequences.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – September
2009
Vroom, Vroom – finally some real stimulus
I have been a big supporter of economic stimulus. Though I have questioned
most of the programs that the Congress came up with, the concept was
sound.
When Congress passed the economic stimulus package last February,
it was properly derided as being misguided. Little of the money was to
be made immediately available, and most was directed to pet projects of
influential congressmen. Transportation, education and public safety all
featured prominently in the legislation.
Spending in these areas does little to stimulate the economy. Instead, expenditures in these areas can
more reasonably be looked at as investments in the future. When the economy recovers, it is smart to
have a good infrastructure to support the movement of goods. It is smart to have well educated and
trained workers to be able to fill jobs.
However, this is all in the future and, as John Maynard Keynes said, “In the long run we are all dead.”
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), as the stimulus plan is officially known,
did have a very important effect on the economy, however, in that it changed the debate. No longer
was the discussion focused on the woe of the situation, but rather on what to do about it. Because
we began to feel the government was finally fully (though maybe foolishly) engaged in searching for
solutions, we began to breathe easier.
To see how fully changed we were by spring, just compare your reaction to the failure of Bear
Stearns and Lehman Brothers with the bankruptcy filings of Chrysler and General Motors. The first
had us quaking and the stock market in free fall. The second had us hardly blinking. It was an amazing
turn around in our collective psyche.
Finally, however, we have seen how effective a true stimulus program can be. Thanks to an idea
proposed by Princeton economist Alan Blinder, Congress in June set up the Car Allowance Rebate System
(CARS), aka Cash for Clunkers. Compared to the $787 billion in ARRA, the initial $1 billion allocated to
CARS was a drop in the bucket. Its stimulus effect on the economy, however, has been far greater.
CARS is a program that is actually designed to get people to do what they need to do to end
the recession, and that is to buy big-ticket consumables. Tax rebates have gone to pay down debt.
Unemployment insurance extensions have gone to buy basics. These have done nothing to stimulate
new economic activity.
CARS, on the other hand, has gotten people doing exactly what is needed, buying cars. In the last
week in July, 250,000 cars were sold under the program. This will keep factories open and people
employed.
The way the program was designed also will have long-lasting environmental consequences. The gas
mileage of the cars sold represents nearly a 70 percent increase over those turned in. This will result
in less gas consumed and less pollution in the environment. Both are very positive side effects of the
program.
Fortunately Congress is continuing to fund the program. I think they should think of other similar
multi-benefit programs. These might include Cash for Windows to encourage homeowners and
businesses to upgrade their windows. I did this in my house several years ago and cut my heating and
cooling costs dramatically. This could also be done for high efficiency furnaces and major appliances.
For decades we have discussed the importance of these types of initiatives. It is time we do them.
They are good for the environment, good for national security and good for the economy.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – October
2009
Watchdogs are Supposed to Make Noise
I n
1928 9-year-old Walter Collins disappeared from his
home in Los
Angeles. The Los Angeles Police, under community
pressure, launched a nationwide search, and
eventually found “Walter” in Illinois. Only when he
was reunited with his mother, Christine Collins,
“Walter” turned out not to be Walter Collins.
Mrs. Collins complained to the
police, but she was told to take the boy home and
she was sure to realize she was mistaken. A couple
weeks later she returned to the police with dental
records, and instead of admitting their error,
Christine Collins was committed to a mental
institution. Only massive public outrage led to her
release.
This story was made into a movie,
The Changeling, which I watched recently with
my wife. It was a very disturbing movie about the
abuse of power. Afterward, my wife, who like me had
been horrified by the events portrayed, commented
that “thank goodness abuses like that can no longer
happen.”
Unfortunately abuses like this do
occur with great regularity. It is only the public
outcry that seems to have diminished.
Union County is blessed with an
organization named the Union County Watchdog
Association. Led by Tina Renna, the group works
tirelessly to keep Union County government honest.
They attend all the Board of Chosen Freeholders
meetings. They demand explanations of nepotistic
hirings. They track expenses of county government
offices and employees and point out abuses. They
expose cover-ups and double dealing. They do all the
things that good government requires.
And how are Ms. Renna and her
group of watchers repaid? With ridicule, abuse,
character assassination and sanction. It is
incredible and disheartening to witness the
treatment these people receive. They are taxpaying,
voting citizens who are exercising their
constitutional rights to question their elected
officials and hold them accountable for their
actions. Rather than be treated w ith courtesy and
respect they are vilified and demeaned. Often, like
Christine Collins, their sanity is called into
question.
Recently a particularly ignoble
piece of literature has appeared called the Kruger
Report. It is sent out anonymously, but given that
it is unflagging in its support of the freeholders,
on e can guess its origin. One can also only guess
at the intent of its name. Is it named for Freddie
Kruger, because it certainly has a slasher feel to
it. The intent of the Kruger Report is to slander
Ms. Renna, to undermine her credibility and to have
us think she is insane (shades of Christine
Collins).
In spite of all this, Ms. Renna
and her watchdogs continue the watch. With the Open
Public Records Act (OPRA) they are able to get
information that government would rather hide. The
Watchdog Association had to take Union County to
court to get this access. They take what they find
to freeholder meetings and ask for clarification or
justification or simply shine the light where the
powers that be would rather it not be shown.
Recently, the American Civil
Liberties Union intervened on behalf of the Watchdog
Association when the freeholder board denied them
the ability to ask questions regarding relatives on
the county payroll. Under threat of another
unwinnable lawsuit, the freeholders apologized and
now allow the questioning.
Because of the internet, the
Watchdog Association is able to make public its
findings. Their website, www.countywatchers.com,
provides a wealth of information on what is
happening in the county, information that is
rarely available in any other place, especially
since the demise of the county section of the
Star Ledger. It is a site that I visit daily.
What really differentiates Tina
Renna from Christine Collins is the lack of public
outrage. When Collins was attacked, the citizens of
Los Angeles rose up and demanded her release in
public demonstration. Perhaps if more county
residents were to read www.countywatchers.com they
would realize that this is just as important.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – November
2009
Never Have So Many Depended on So
Few
Quite a few years ago I was
engaged in a lively discussion with one of my
closest friends and mentors over what is the fair
share for the rich to pay in taxes. With a graduated
tax system at both the state and federal level, the
wealthier you are the greater the percentage of your
income goes to paying taxes.
My friend thought that the amount
of income tax paid by the wealthy was far lower than
it should be. The wealthy have more and can thus pay
more, not only in gross amount, but also as a
percentage of their total income.
I asked him what the level should
be. How much of the total taxes collected should
come from, say, the top 1 percent of income earners?
Should it be 10 percent, or 20 percent? What’s the
fair level?
My friend realized I knew what
the number actually was and refused to say what he
thought it should be, only that it was too low.
So how about my readers; what do
you think the top 1 percent should contribute? 10
percent? 20 percent? What’s fair in your view?
Well now that you have the number
in your mind, here’s how it actually plays out.
In 2006, the last year on a
federal level I could find numbers for, the top 1
percent of taxpayers paid a whopping 40 percent of
the total tax collected. The top 5 percent paid 60
percent; the top 10 percent paid 70 percent; the top
25 percent paid 86 percent; and the top 50 percent
paid 97 percent of all personal income taxes
collected. The bottom 50 percent ended up
contributing only 3 percent.
To give some perspective, the top
1 percent earned more than $389,000. The top 5
percent earned more than $154,000. The top 10
percent was at $109,000+, the top 25 percent at
$65,000+ and the top 50 percent at $32,000+.
In New Jersey, the story is much
the same. In 2006, before the McGreevy tax increase,
the top 1.5 percent of taxpayers accounted for 42
percent of the taxes collected. Those earning more
than $250,000, or the top 4 percent, accounted for
54 percent of the taxes collected. Those earning
less than $100,000, nearly 80 percent of the total
returns, paid only 19 percent of the taxes.
Absent the fairness discussion,
it’s easy to see why this isn’t good policy,
especially in a state like New Jersey. The top tax
rate in New Jersey is 6.5 times the lowest. Every
dollar of income decline at the top income level
lowers state revenue by 6.5 times as much as a
dollar lost in the lowest tax bracket.
So what happens when that hotshot
bond trader who works on Wall Street doesn’t get a
bonus this year because the president has capped his
compensation at $500,000 instead of the $2.5 million
he made last year? The state’s tax collections fall
by $180,000 and the federal government loses
$700,000.
This is exactly what we are
seeing, and we can expect a huge hole in New
Jersey’s tax collections for both this fiscal year
and next.
Anyone in business knows that if
you depend on a very few clients for your revenue
you can wake up one day and be out of business. The
alternative is to diversify.
On a tax basis this can be done
by sharing the tax burden more widely, or it can be
done by finding new sources of revenue. You could
also cut expenses, but in government that is the
last thing ever considered.
Unfortunately, I expect New
Jersey to follow the New York example and raise
income taxes on the top earners even more. What
politician would ever discuss a tax increase for the
many when he can discuss it for the few? The tyranny
of the majority is alive and well and as
shortsighted as ever.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top>
President’s Message – December
2009
The Great Myth
Pretty much all the discussion
concerning health care reform has devolved into a
shouting match over the so-called public option.
Unfortunately the fact that the
public option has very much to do with either health
care reform or cost control is a great myth.
But wait, you say, Nancy Pelosi
has assured us that having health insurance sold by
a government agency will have the immediate result
of lowering insurance premiums. How can she be
wrong?
Well, she’s not wrong. She’s just
disingenuous. Here’s why.
If a public agency starts to sell
health insurance, it has two very big advantages
over private insurers. First, it will not be subject
to taxation, neither at a state or federal level.
This will give it an immediate saving of between 20
and 25 percent, equivalent to the tax imposed on
health insurance companies. Of course, it also means
a huge decline in tax revenues, for states in
particular, but that’s another story.
Second, a government agency,
probably working in concert with Medicare and
Medicaid, would be a price-setter rather than a
price-taker. This means they will tell hospitals and
doctors how much they are going to pay for a
procedure.
So, haven’t I just proved the
point that the public option will lower costs? Yes,
in year one it certainly will lower costs. Costs
could be lowered by an even greater amount if taxes
were also waived for private insurers and they could
reimburse hospitals and doctors at the same rate as
the public option. Hey, this is only fair.
But it is in year two where the
problem arises. You see, insurance companies are not
increasing prices, they are simply passing through
the higher prices hospitals and doctors are
charging. My insurance went up by 20 percent this
year. In the past there have been even greater
increases.
So if the public option decreases
prices by, say, 20 percent, it is likely a one-year
thing. Prices will continue to go up at probably the
same rate even with the public option.
So the savings are at best
fleeting. No panacea here, only a myth of one.
But even if the public option
doesn’t really save money, doesn’t it at least make
us healthier? If more people have insurance won’t
they get better care?
This again is true, but also
misleading. It is incorrect to say that people
without health insurance do not get care. There is
not a hospital in this country that will turn away
someone in need. An ambulance will always transport
an accident victim whether or not they have
insurance. While care delivered this way is the most
expensive of all options, care is available for
everyone in this country.
So it would indeed be better for
people to have insurance. Health care would be
delivered in a much more cost-effective way. But
also it would be used more extensively. In other
words, demand would go up on a system that is
already strained to the limit. And what does this
mean? Again, that costs will increase even more.
This really appears to be no-win
situation whichever way you look. The public option
isn’t going to cut costs, and the more people with
insurance the higher costs will tend. And that is
because all this discussion misses the true
underlying problem.
We are fat and lazy and growing
old. Until these facts are addressed, costs will go
up and up.
James Coyle
President
<Back to top> |